# May be a lot of sad sellers at the sale barn today



## Swv.farmer (Jan 2, 2016)

Took some calves to the sale barn me and the guy that runs the sale barn was talking he seams to think that people is going to be sad today that the bottom is going to fall on out of beef. 
He said he looks for beef to be back to .70 cents a pound by October.


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## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

That is really sad if that occurs.

Regards, Mike


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## TJH (Mar 23, 2014)

If calves go to 70 dollars/cwt, it will break a lot of people and pretty much the hay market as well. Those that don't go under will in most cases barely be able to feed their families. I always figured it would stop in the 110-115 range, however anything below a buck will be a train wreck for AG in general.


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## carcajou (Jan 28, 2011)

I just don't buy that. :huh:


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## Tim/South (Dec 12, 2011)

Right now cattle prices are at a 4 year low.

Slaughter numbers are up, 607K last week, 608K this week. That is usually a positive sign with consecutive weeks of high slaughter numbers as it means beef is moving off the shelves. Retail prices are still high but inching down. Processors and retailers are making the money.

Cattle coming off of feed are a little lighter than last year which is good. Usually means processors are in need.

Replacement cattle going to the feed lots are cheap ($1.39). This does not leave leave much profit for them to pay for our calves.

The low dollar is good for our exports and keeps imported beef numbers down.

Once the dust settles over the UK vote and our November election we will have a better idea on where we are headed.


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## bbos2 (Mar 20, 2015)

I agree tim. A lot has to do with uncertainty, and There is a lot of money being made and it's not by the farmer. It really sucks when the market makes the cow man and feeder duke it out to improve bottom lines. Some barns, maybe a lot, will sit empty before loosing money hand over fist. I know mine will be if things don't turn around by my next turn. Which sadly puts the cow man in more of a bind with less of a demand, and their the ones who are unable to sit it out for a round.

A lot of work to give beef to the grocieries only so they can mark it up.

World wide there is more demand for meat in general. Like tim said once things calm down in Europe it will be business as usual.


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## Tater Salad (Jan 31, 2016)

"Luke Strawwalker" can correct me as far as south Texas.....But an old friend of mine in central Texas told me a few weeks back the herds weren't even 60% of what they were before the drought....Myself I don't believe this economy is as strong as a certain party would have us believe....still a LOT of penny pinchin goin on ?????!!!!! Either way you beef/dairy guys just can't catch a break it seems.....wish I had the answers.....


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## Swv.farmer (Jan 2, 2016)

Well just got home from the sale barn my calves done as good as any one else but it was not great 600 pound average and got a 1.12 average.
Down 20 cents from last week on the pound.


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## Swv.farmer (Jan 2, 2016)

Light weights were the best average around 1.32 big bulls done ok around 1.00 a pound
Young bread cows around 975.00 to 1025.00
Stock cows around .75 cents.


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## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

Thanks for the current sale report.

Regards, Mike


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## BWfarms (Aug 3, 2015)

I'll weather any price fall but 70 is probably a strong speculation for 400-600 weights. If it does hit that low, guess I'll be paying premiums for pastureland. Maybe I should offer 70 tomorrow to the guy I'm purchasing from, get double what I was planning to buy


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## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

I just cannot believe that a 4-5 weight steer calf will bring .70 cents. It would have to be contrived for this to happen.

File B2-12
Updated February, 2016

pdf format

Regards, Mike


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## carcajou (Jan 28, 2011)

Vol said:


> I just cannot believe that a 4-5 weight steer calf will bring .70 cents. It would have to be contrived for this to happen.
> 
> File B2-12
> Updated February, 2016
> ...


I'm with you Mike. I can see $140 to $160 cwt for good quality 400 weight calves this fall,


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## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

If you believe they will be .70 this fall then hedge them.

I think a feeder cattle futures contract is 40,000 lbs.Not sure if there is a mini contract like grain has.

Put Options would be another way to protect yourself.


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## Swv.farmer (Jan 2, 2016)

carcajou said:


> I'm with you Mike. I can see $140 to $160 cwt for good quality 400 weight calves this fall,


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## Swv.farmer (Jan 2, 2016)

They may should have brought that but they didn't.


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## Swv.farmer (Jan 2, 2016)

They may should have brought that but they didn't. 
They may bring it this fall but right now around hear they won't.
I go to three different markets one hear in Ewing va one in Jonesvill va and one in London ky and the price runs pretty close at all 3


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## carcajou (Jan 28, 2011)

Alberta market price 500-600lb heifers for the week ending June 24th

Clyde 190-237 cwt Ponoka 190-218 cwt Strathmore 180-239 cwt

Even if you average on the low end, that still works out to $143 cwt US dollars.


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## mlappin (Jun 25, 2009)

We still raise a low enough volume that we don't have a problem moving most of it as freezer beef so somewhat insulated from the speculators.


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## BWfarms (Aug 3, 2015)

I will freely admit I'm a happy buyer this time around. Got a load to pick up this week and locked in a load for fall pickup.


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## luke strawwalker (Jul 31, 2014)

Tater Salad said:


> "Luke Strawwalker" can correct me as far as south Texas.....But an old friend of mine in central Texas told me a few weeks back the herds weren't even 60% of what they were before the drought....Myself I don't believe this economy is as strong as a certain party would have us believe....still a LOT of penny pinchin goin on ?????!!!!! Either way you beef/dairy guys just can't catch a break it seems.....wish I had the answers.....


Yep, exactly right. There were a LOT of the 'old timers', guys in their 70's and 80's, who had to sell out in the severe droughts in south Texas a few years back. Just plain no grass to see them through and too expensive to buy trucked in hay, and we're talking about normally DRY areas that don't grow tons of grass in a good year anyway, that were BONE dry, so most of those cattle went to market and the old timers decided to hang it up and retire. H3ll, I would too if I were that age-- just not worth the time and effort to rebuild a herd when you're that old one foot in the grave the other on a banana peel age. Not enough "new guys" to replace 'em all either. Usually the kids and young folks have moved to town/cities for better paying and easier jobs, so a lot of the old timers don't have a really dedicated successor to hand it down to any way, so why bother.

For those of us still "young enough" to stay in it, I haven't seen a lot of interest in herd building. I know we haven't really done a lot to that end. A few guys here and there looking to expand, but the vast majority I'd say "standing pat". I know after we weathered the drought and culled down, we decided to let the land rest and sell potential replacements for good prices while we could. Let the grass and the land build back up, and not have to worry about getting "overstocked" in the event of drought again. We're probably "understocked" for the wet conditions, but I'd rather have cows in belly-deep grass picking and choosing what they want to eat than scrounging dry ground looking for anything they can find. Easier and cheaper to get through the winter too, and the land stays in better shape.

So now hear tell "the sky is falling" pricewise. I've just quit paying attention to all these "market geniuses" and their constant back and forth harping. A couple years ago they were screaming bloody murder that calf prices were too high and the market was "desperately signaling" for herd building... which of course takes 3-4 years to really have a full effect... Now all of a sudden there's "too many cattle" out there and so prices are gonna tank. Back to the seven year "boom/bust" cattle cycle, which only serves to make the packers and retailers fat and happy... Oh well...

One nice thing about cattle over row crops-- I can eat cattle-- kinda hard to eat a crop of cotton or corn or sorghum or beans... plus, it only costs me grazing to "store" cattle til I'm ready to sell... cotton's sitting in a warehouse with storage costs whittling it's value down to nothing, corn/beans/grain sits in an elevator doing the same (unless you have on-farm storage, which ain't cheap either, and most folks down here DON'T have on-farm storage anyway). Plus, I can cut costs with cattle WAY more than with row crops. I've sold $2+ calves and I've sold 30 cent calves-- if the market is only going to pay 30 cents for calves, they're going to GET 30 cent calves-- might be the rangiest, sway-backed, pot bellied little beasts you ever saw, but I can sell poor 30 cent calves and still make SOMETHING, versus 30 cent cotton or 3 dollar corn and GO IN THE HOLE...

Later! OL J R


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## Tater Salad (Jan 31, 2016)

You are a VERY forward thinking sharp Farmer/Rancher "LUKE".....It takes a truckload of GUTS alone to let the land "rest"........We'll all recognize your "Brand " someday young man !!!!............Tater


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## luke strawwalker (Jul 31, 2014)

Tater Salad said:


> You are a VERY forward thinking sharp Farmer/Rancher "LUKE".....It takes a truckload of GUTS alone to let the land "rest"........We'll all recognize your "Brand " someday young man !!!!............Tater


LOL Thanks... "helps" when the old folks don't want to spend any money... LOL

Later! OL J R


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## Swv.farmer (Jan 2, 2016)

What's the average price of feeders at your local market.


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## endrow (Dec 15, 2011)

Last week some Farmers that took Holstein bull calves to auction got a bill because they brought less than the minimum Commission


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## BWfarms (Aug 3, 2015)

Swv.farmer said:


> What's the average price of feeders at your local market.


Carolina Stockyards

Steers 90-120
Heifers 70-90
Bulls 60-90


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## BWfarms (Aug 3, 2015)

endrow said:


> Last week some Farmers that took Holstein bull calves to auction got a bill because they brought less than the minimum Commission


That's horrible!


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## Waterway64 (Dec 2, 2011)

I know there is a big drought in the southeast and droughts cause lower prices. At those prices if the trucking wasn't so expensive I'd bring some here to sell! 600-630 lb steer calves are bringing $126-$135 this week.


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## Tim/South (Dec 12, 2011)

This is the best prices have been here for a while. This is the sale closest to me.

http://www.cattle.com/markets/barn_report.aspx?code=MG_LS154


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## r82230 (Mar 1, 2016)

I got $120 to $130 for the eight 400# I sold last week (the market was at $105 to $130, overall).

Larry


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## Swv.farmer (Jan 2, 2016)

BWfarms said:


> Carolina Stockyards
> 
> Steers 90-120
> Heifers 70-90
> Bulls 60-90


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## Swv.farmer (Jan 2, 2016)

Just about the same thing around hear.
I liked the prices of a year ago better.
Maby things will pick up when trump stop the import.


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## Waterway64 (Dec 2, 2011)

I watched the market for awhile today. I like to watch 600-700 lb. strs because that is where I like to sell my fall calves in the spring. They were a little higher today probably $10 higher in the past monthOne group of steers I liked at 609 lbs brought $822/hd. It definitly pays to background and and have them uniform and in good flesh. This year we have had a dry year and those producers hauling in a bunch of droughthy calves are getting hit hard.


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## urednecku (Oct 18, 2010)

http://www.arcadiastockyard.com/current-price-trends/


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## azmike (Jan 4, 2015)

We sold some steers in this weeks auction, up just a bit from last week. It appears that auction "highs" are very hard to get. The buyers are very picky and careful about their purchase. We had a couple all black 5 weights the we bet would be market highs but missed by a few cents. Also some good butcher steers like one 750 lb paint that pulled in .95 better than we guessed also.


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## SCtrailrider (May 1, 2016)

I have a "newbee" question.... when I look at the sale info, is the 70-90 a per lb price... I'm guessing yes, sometimes I'm not too sure as some don't have the decimal just numbers.... guessing it's all per lb numbers ??

Chesnee SC is the closest for me.... haven't been in years, just wondering...


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## Tx Jim (Jun 30, 2014)

One thing that contributes to lower live cattle prices is the high price of meat at the grocery stores which limits sales of meat. Here's what cattle were reported to bring last week at a sale close to me.


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## BWfarms (Aug 3, 2015)

SCtrailrider said:


> I have a "newbee" question.... when I look at the sale info, is the 70-90 a per lb price... I'm guessing yes, sometimes I'm not too sure as some don't have the decimal just numbers.... guessing it's all per lb numbers ??
> 
> Chesnee SC is the closest for me.... haven't been in years, just wondering...


In decimal form it's per pound. When you see it in whole numbers it is by hundredweight (cwt).


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## glasswrongsize (Sep 15, 2015)

SCtrailrider said:


> I have a "newbee" question.... when I look at the sale info, is the 70-90 a per lb price... I'm guessing yes, sometimes I'm not too sure as some don't have the decimal just numbers.... guessing it's all per lb numbers ??
> 
> Chesnee SC is the closest for me.... haven't been in years, just wondering...


No decimal is per CWT ( the C Standing for 100, s in c-note) meaning 100 weight, so the decimail would not be used. .90 (decimal 9-0) would be 90 cents per pound and 90 ( no decimal) would be 90$ per hundred which is still 90 cents per pound. 
Not trying to be snarky above, it's harder to type an explaination than to talk it at ya.

Skip a rope, Mark


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## Swv.farmer (Jan 2, 2016)

Tx Jim said:


> One thing that contributes to lower live cattle prices is the high price of meat at the grocery stores which limits sales of meat. Here's what cattle were reported to bring last week at a sale close to me.


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## Swv.farmer (Jan 2, 2016)

Pretty close to what I seen hear Saturday it was up a little from a week earlier.


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## SCtrailrider (May 1, 2016)

Thanks, thought that was correct I just wanted to be sure ...

Chris


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## Swv.farmer (Jan 2, 2016)

I talked to a guy yesterday said he thought they would be a few pennies higher this weekend.


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## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

Sioux Falls Regional.

http://sfrlinc.com/web/market-reports/


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## Waterway64 (Dec 2, 2011)

That's about what we are seeing in the western part of the state to.


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## Swv.farmer (Jan 2, 2016)

Just got home from the sale barn cattle was up a little all across the board.about .10 per pound over all.


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