# Black Swans??



## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

Agweb on the future of commodities.....how long will this fairy tale last?

Regards, Mike

http://www.agweb.com...on_the_horizon/


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## Mike120 (May 4, 2009)

Look up "Black Swan Theory" The book "The Black Swan" is sort of required reading in my consulting business. It's just hard to get through.....


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## Mike120 (May 4, 2009)

Usually Mr. Taleb's writings are deep in the bowels of statistics and probability. However, if the attached is any indication, his latest book might be interesting reading. The attached article is a bit long but the rules he puts forth are excellent and just plain common sense.

View attachment Learning to Love Volatility Nassim Nicholas Taleb 17 Nov 2012.pdf


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## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

Thats 5 good commonsense rules. As a Finance major in college, I took several courses in Probabilities and Statistics.

Regards, Mike


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## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

Vol said:


> Thats 5 good commonsense rules. As a Finance major in college, I took several courses in Probabilities and Statistics.
> 
> Regards, Mike


And then never used what I learned from those courses ever again....









Regards, Mike


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## Mike120 (May 4, 2009)

Just got the book today.......not sure if it's an easier read though.


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## deadmoose (Oct 30, 2011)

Vol said:


> And then never used what I learned from those courses ever again....
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I know the feeling. The one book I wish I kept from college was on my Theory of Interest class. Problem was it was the only class they used the same book for many many years. I sold it back in a heartbeat.


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## rjmoses (Apr 4, 2010)

Vol said:


> And then never used what I learned from those courses ever again....
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Interesting, isn't it? Some of the math and engineering courses I took, I have never used once! Other courses, like business law and acting that I took on my own, I have used over and over!

Maybe real-world people should design the curriculum instead of college professors.

Ralph
BTW: I wish I had kept my chemistry books.


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## Mike120 (May 4, 2009)

rjmoses said:


> Interesting, isn't it? Some of the math and engineering courses I took, I have never used once! Other courses, like business law and acting that I took on my own, I have used over and over!
> 
> Maybe real-world people should design the curriculum instead of college professors.
> 
> ...


Interesting point Ralph and a pretty good indication of the problems with our education system. A major failing is the expectation of many students is that learning stops when school is over. I had the good fortune over the years to have hired a lot of bright young kids right out of college. I used to explain to them that the purpose of their education was not to make them engineers, but to provide them the foundation so they could learn to be engineers. It's not learning the formulas or physics that's important....it's how they are applied to successfully solve problems that makes a good engineer.

Another fallacy is that what you study in school determines what you'll do for the rest of your life. Success in life, IMHO, is determined by how good you are at recognizing opportunities, selecting those that are most promising, and and exploiting them for either your personal or employer's benefit (which can also benefit you). Typically you'll have to learn something new to exploit the opportunity because they don't teach you that in school.....they only teach you, in theory, how to learn. If you are constrained by the box your education gave you, or by the box our society wants to put you in because of a lack of education, you might be able to recognize opportunities, but might not believe in yourself enough to exploit them. BTW, pretty much anything you need for chemistry, is available on-line (except for the lab).

You will notice that MR. Taleb, a former derivatives trader, is a distinguished professor. He paid his dues in the real world which is sadly unique in the academic world.


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