# Pent up demands



## Markwright (Nov 19, 2019)

Pent up demands for goods, products and services is very close at hand now.

Spring and warm temps kills off flu And it's now spring in the Northern Hemisphere.

The economy and look of things will be 1000% better by Mid May.

Expect a $30cwt up for fat cattle before June. 
Say to the $145cwt level... End if May into June.

Don't forget to mark em out.


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## IHCman (Aug 27, 2011)

I like your optimisum but I don't believe warm weather is going to kill off this novel coronavirus. To many countries in much warmer climates than us are having outbreaks.


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## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

That's pretty optimistic!

Reality is cattle are going to get backed up with plants closing because of sick workers.One plant shut down from a fire etc is devastating to the cattle market as we have seen in the past.Imagine if a few plants get shut down!!!!

Look what's happened the last few weeks,boxed meat price went up and live market went down with increased demand at grocery stores.Now the orders are not coming in from resteraunts so boxed price will fall on less demand.

Heard some info that some large feeedlots are changing rations to delay cattle to market hopping to get past the corona peak.

Hopefully I'm wrong but I think things will get very ugly before they get better.


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## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

So it begins.Processors not buying.

http://www.decorahsalescommission.com/


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## carcajou (Jan 28, 2011)

swmnhay said:


> That's pretty optimistic!
> 
> Reality is cattle are going to get backed up with plants closing because of sick workers.One plant shut down from a fire etc is devastating to the cattle market as we have seen in the past.Imagine if a few plants get shut down!!!!
> 
> ...


I'm thinking the same way. The Easter lamb market sure took a hit. I'm thinking of buying bulls for my backgrounded heifers, might have to stretch this out another year just to avoid taking a loss. Packers will make out like bandits just like when BSE hit, and the yearling and fat market might tank through the whole summer. Some time there is no rhyme nor reason to the direction a market goes.


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## Markwright (Nov 19, 2019)

In china, corona has hit the suppression phase.

No new cases some weeks and/or 1 to 5 new cases others.

Beef exports are Up 18% over last year.... Bet China buys an unbelievable amount of USA beef now.


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## carcajou (Jan 28, 2011)

Markwright said:


> In china, corona has hit the suppression phase.
> 
> No new cases some weeks and/or 1 to 5 new cases others.
> 
> Beef exports are Up 18% over last year.... Bet China buys an unbelievable amount of USA beef now.


You could be right, but that won't matter if packers don't pay up. I was very optimistic in January, now i'm unsure like most.


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## JD3430 (Jan 1, 2012)

Markwright said:


> In china, corona has hit the suppression phase.
> 
> No new cases some weeks and/or 1 to 5 new cases others.
> 
> Beef exports are Up 18% over last year.... Bet China buys an unbelievable amount of USA beef now.


Ever ask yourself why they buy so much USA beef?


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## Markwright (Nov 19, 2019)

They have not bought much usa beef in the past.

This last trade deal made....theyre supposed to buy quite a bit of USA agri stuff.. Well see.

Their pork supply is Smithfield which China owns.

I figure they'll just add some higher quality USA beef to their protien needs.


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## JD3430 (Jan 1, 2012)

I bet it's because President Trump (finally a president with a big enough pair)
used his power of persuasion to get them to buy American beef and pork via a new trade deal.


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## PaMike (Dec 7, 2013)

swmnhay said:


> So it begins.Processors not buying.
> 
> http://www.decorahsalescommission.com/


Large sale barn in PA also said they have no buyers for todays sale...


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## r82230 (Mar 1, 2016)

swmnhay said:


> Heard some info that some large feeedlots are changing rations to delay cattle to market hopping to get past the corona peak.


We got changes in rations here (both beef and dairy) because of reduction of DDG, seems ethanol is not completive with cheap oil prices. Surely, won't be helping the corn prices either I do believe. 

Larry


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## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

r82230 said:


> We got changes in rations here (both beef and dairy) because of reduction of DDG, seems ethanol is not completive with cheap oil prices. Surely, won't be helping the corn prices either I do believe.
> 
> Larry


Ethanol plants dropped basis on corn .30 in one day here


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## somedevildawg (Jun 20, 2011)

Sale barn here is closed until further notice.....they move quite a bit thru. The second largest in Georgia....


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## somedevildawg (Jun 20, 2011)

6k head a day dairy here is dumping milk at rampant rates....


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## haybaler101 (Nov 30, 2008)

Turkey integrator I grow for is reducing poult placements 10%. Too much meat.


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## PaMike (Dec 7, 2013)

I dont understand it. Too much meat yet I just sold some steers tongiht to a guy in northern PA who is butchering 2 steers a week to sell quarters and halves because the consumer cant find beef in the local grocery isle...

Nothing in this whole thing right now makes sense..



haybaler101 said:


> Turkey integrator I grow for is reducing poult placements 10%. Too much meat.


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## carcajou (Jan 28, 2011)

somedevildawg said:


> Sale barn here is closed until further notice.....they move quite a bit thru. The second largest in Georgia....


Hey Dawg! Great to see you back on Haytalk. Drop me a pm and fill me in on how life's been treating you. Ray


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## Farmerbrown2 (Sep 25, 2018)

It doesn’t make sense here either. Wife went to Giant grocery store and Walmart they where out of margarine and butter pretty much. Not much meat of any kind in coolers . Ice cream cooler only has odd ball flavors good stuff gets cleaned out quickly. The two local butcher shops are swamped with people daily selling more then ever. Flour is very hard to find also sometimes they have bread flour but not all purpose.


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## Palmettokat (Jul 10, 2017)

It is a panic market still. In all my life and all our Hurricanes never heard of stores selling out of toilet paper. Paper plates with Hurricanes, yes but toilet paper?

I am on the believe the US market is pent up and will bust open with great energy. If business is back open in all aspects really believe this Memorial Day will be one of the biggest in many many years. People or tired of having to hide and no options on what to do. Realize money may be tight but believe spending will explode. Now this is based upon we are really seeing the declines being told in last couple of days.

Don't think the people are not have major withdraw pains on eating out and cookout and such. Watch for shortage of charcoal. lol


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## JD3430 (Jan 1, 2012)

Palmettokat said:


> It is a panic market still. In all my life and all our Hurricanes never heard of stores selling out of toilet paper. Paper plates with Hurricanes, yes but toilet paper?
> 
> I am on the believe the US market is pent up and will bust open with great energy. If business is back open in all aspects really believe this Memorial Day will be one of the biggest in many many years. People or tired of having to hide and no options on what to do. Realize money may be tight but believe spending will explode. Now this is based upon we are really seeing the declines being told in last couple of days.
> 
> Don't think the people are not have major withdraw pains on eating out and cookout and such. Watch for shortage of charcoal. lol


I live within 75-100 miles of 100 different beach/vacation towns. They would usually be prepping for the influx of millions of visitors. What are they supposed to do? Just go bankrupt? 
It's not going to happen. People are going to get sick of sitting around or going out with masks & gloves on. 
It'll happen soon.


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## slowzuki (Mar 8, 2011)

Over last year the multi year massive ramp up in Chinese pork production has been hit with african swine fever and been just decimated leading to rapid price increase and consumption of other meats.



JD3430 said:


> I bet it's because President Trump (finally a president with a big enough pair)
> used his power of persuasion to get them to buy American beef and pork via a new trade deal.


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## JD3430 (Jan 1, 2012)

slowzuki said:


> Over last year the multi year massive ramp up in Chinese pork production has been hit with african swine fever and been just decimated leading to rapid price increase and consumption of other meats.


beef????


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## danwi (Mar 6, 2015)

Its going to take a little bit to get these packers and processors back up to speed the farmer can produce the food but we need to get these people back to work but they are going to run into some hurdles like the packing plants getting co2 when so many ethanol plants are shut down. They must have had a different source before ethanol. I hope something people take away from this is our reliance on China for products. We need to make things in the USA for ourselves not just because they can do it cheaper.


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## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

Cattle harvest yesterday 92,000
Yr ago 122,000

Plants closed or slowed down because not enough workers.

Not good!!


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## Markwright (Nov 19, 2019)

At Tyson's Pasco WA beef plant... 
They have installed quite a few work station dividers

Every worker gets their temp taken, when they report for work. And there's infared 
Continues temp monitoring of most areas of the plant.

And break room space is now expanded.


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## stack em up (Mar 7, 2013)

Best friend can’t even get a bid on his fats. Meat locker can only slaughter so many per day, he’s booked them up for a week already he said


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## Markwright (Nov 19, 2019)

Could offer em on Fed Cattle Exchange.

Depends on Your timing on those.

Say 104 to $107cwt 10 to 15 days out. 
Of maybe $110 to $114cwt 20 days out.


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## CowboyRam (Dec 13, 2015)

https://www.kla.org/news-center/news-releases/news/details/17983/study-estimates-cattle-industry-losses-at-more-than-13-billion?fbclid=IwAR1YW5Aw0cnUboJw_5yD6DfY7FnPgbJrclYM1oHincYN3vJ6kuX_w1_3tU8


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## danwi (Mar 6, 2015)

I see Patrick Cudahay in Milwaukee is shutting down for a couple of weeks.


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## Markwright (Nov 19, 2019)

Another Smuthfield deal.

Big meat saved say $500 that is now costing $500 million to maybe up to $5billion.

It takes $4 to $6 more per hour labor/safety features to negate corna..

More work space, Plexiglas dividers, temp testing, more break room space.... Etc etc..


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## danwi (Mar 6, 2015)

IF these plants get up and running again in 2 weeks there is 2 weeks backlog on cattle that should have gone to market. If rations aren't adjusted they will be that much heavier.


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## r82230 (Mar 1, 2016)

danwi said:


> IF these plants get up and running again in 2 weeks there is 2 weeks backlog on cattle that should have gone to market. If rations aren't adjusted they will be that much heavier.


Lead times for all the critters in the pipeline, doesn't adjust that quick. IIRC, chickens are around 58 - 60 days from hatching, pigs around 5 months (plus gestation period of around 114 days), cattle 15-24 months (plus gestation of around 278 days). Turkeys I have no idea of the timeline, but they would be another highly used protein source.

Pretty hard to turn off that time from beginning to end quickly and the weights would most likely be heavier for certain.

Larry


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## haybaler101 (Nov 30, 2008)

r82230 said:


> Lead times for all the critters in the pipeline, doesn't adjust that quick. IIRC, chickens are around 58 - 60 days from hatching, pigs around 5 months (plus gestation period of around 114 days), cattle 15-24 months (plus gestation of around 278 days). Turkeys I have no idea of the timeline, but they would be another highly used protein source.
> 
> Pretty hard to turn off that time from beginning to end quickly and the weights would most likely be heavier for certain.





r82230 said:


> Turkeys are 140 days, hatch to slaughter. I am hoping mine make it out by 147 days. We are 134 right now with no scheduled sale.


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## haybaler101 (Nov 30, 2008)

Turkeys are 140 days, hatch to slaughter. I am hoping mine make it out by 147 days. We are 134 right now with no scheduled sale.


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## Farmerbrown2 (Sep 25, 2018)

I was standing in a friends barn tonight looking at 40 fat steers ready to butcher needless to say he’s not happy.


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