# Grain prices tank on account of drought???



## rjmoses (Apr 4, 2010)

Somebody please explaing to me how grain prices can be tanking while we're approaching drought conditions?

https://www.agweb.com/article/gulke-markets-retreat-as-15-of-corn-soybean-crop-deteriorates-naa-sara-schafer/

Oh, we have leftovers from last year?

Ralph


----------



## bbos2 (Mar 20, 2015)

Usda wants cheap food.
My only guess at this point. Crop condition, drought maps, and timely planting only matters when it affects the market negatively. They tend to ignore those conditions when it could mean higher prices .


----------



## Teslan (Aug 20, 2011)

rjmoses said:


> Somebody please explaing to me how grain prices can be tanking while we're approaching drought conditions?
> 
> https://www.agweb.com/article/gulke-markets-retreat-as-15-of-corn-soybean-crop-deteriorates-naa-sara-schafer/
> 
> ...


Now my memory is hazy, but wasn't 2012 a drought year? And prices were sky high? And they were climbing the year before when drought was approaching?


----------



## Smoothy (Apr 26, 2015)

Global market. Brazil is having a bin buster of year harvesting corn right now. I'm sure with carry over from last year and pressure from other countries the drought areas that see yield hits aren't as catostrophic for the market as they are for the individual farmer.


----------



## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)




----------



## bbos2 (Mar 20, 2015)

Teslan said:


> Now my memory is hazy, but wasn't 2012 a drought year? And prices were sky high? And they were climbing the year before when drought was approaching?


If I remember right prices didn't take off till June when drought was full swing. A lot of 2012 corn went to truck houses for a lot less than 7-8bucks



Smoothy said:


> Global market. Brazil is having a bin buster of year harvesting corn right now. I'm sure with carry over from last year and pressure from other countries the drought areas that see yield hits aren't as catostrophic for the market as they are for the individual farmer.


China is hot and dry. Austrailia I thought had some issues , parts of Europe were extremely dry. We still produce the cheapest grain world wide so our weather should impact the market more. I read somewhere our current carryover wouldn't last but a couple months in a catostrphic year. (which I'm not saying this is nessisarly a catostrphic year) but to me that's not much of a carryover.

Sorry usda really got me hot today ..


----------



## haybaler101 (Nov 30, 2008)

Hold on guys, today's report only took into consideration planted acreage and final population. Nothing to do with pod counts, ear weights, iowa drought or anything else. Today is just a chance for traders to start leaning in the wrong direction. Storage will pay off big as problem area begin to show up on yield monitors. Even a bad crop doesn't look too bad at 75 mph from the interstate!


----------



## Smoothy (Apr 26, 2015)

Haha very true haybaler101... The field was greenish must be great yields in that one!


----------



## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)




----------



## haybaler101 (Nov 30, 2008)

swmnhay said:


>


And the USDA is banking on record yields in states that are not on that list! If Louisiana has 250 bushel corn, is it really going to make a difference?


----------



## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

haybaler101 said:


> And the USDA is banking on record yields in states that are not on that list! If Louisiana has 250 bushel corn, is it really going to make a difference?


Well from what I hear is the USDA crop rateings in some states are way below last yr yet they USDA says it will yield higher then last yr.


----------



## haybaler101 (Nov 30, 2008)

swmnhay said:


> Well from what I hear is the USDA crop rateings in some states are way below last yr yet they USDA says it will yield higher then last yr.


And those states are the top ones on the list and dramatically affect the overall average.


----------



## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

haybaler101 said:


> And those states are the top ones on the list and dramatically affect the overall average.


That's right....and if you can see the little bitty fine print at the bottom of those states that Cy posted it says those states combined for 84% of 2016 corn production.....leaving all the rest for the other 16%.

Regards, Mike


----------



## haybaler101 (Nov 30, 2008)

USDA numbers keep getting more bizarre. Just read on Agweb, 9 southern states are reporting double digit gains in yield potential, BUT do to reduced acreage, these same nine states will have less total production than last year. Mind you, these 9 states only produced 5 million acres of corn last year and Iowa has 13 million by itself. I really think the world would be a better place if the government did not try to be a farmer.


----------



## PaMike (Dec 7, 2013)

Come on, we all know the system is rigged. It doesnt REALLY have anything to do with supply and demand...


----------



## Ray 54 (Aug 2, 2014)

Well with all the marketing companies and government experts out checking I see regional areas in the corn belt are predicted to go 210 bu this year.

So those of you growing corn clean the bins out it will get cheaper at harvest!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! OH MAYBE NOT.

Oh I bet that works better for the international marketing companies!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hopefully all of you growing corn can stand to plant less next year if the price is not a bit better. Really makes no cents to do all the work and have a average crop and only get your inputs back.

More local to me (100 miles) I see the big cotton growers sold water to cities and have sheep cleaning up the weeds again.


----------



## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

Ray 54 said:


> Well with all the marketing companies and government experts out checking I see regional areas in the corn belt are predicted to go 210 bu this year.
> 
> So those of you growing corn clean the bins out it will get cheaper at harvest!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! OH MAYBE NOT.
> 
> ...


The lows are prly close to being in,I hope anyway.If we have early frost we won't have a crop here and prices will sky rocket.

We will plant fence row to fence row just like we do every yr.Land cost is the biggest expense so if you leave it lay idle you loose money for sure.Just hope to ride it out untill prices get better.Cut some cost where you can,hold off on machinery purchases,etc.

Some where smart enough to pay off debt when corn was $7 instead of buying lake homes and all new machinery and they will ride it out just fine.The ones that bought all new machinery to get out of taxes might be in a world of hurt.


----------

