# Buy cows....or not



## carcajou (Jan 28, 2011)

I have been seriously thinking of adding a cow/calf herd to our farm. I have found a dream herd of cows at a good price but i can't seem to pull the trigger. A part of me definitely feels about the time i build it up to a decent size the market will drop out again. I didn't expect to see $2/bu barley again either. Anyone else feel this way?


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## deadmoose (Oct 30, 2011)

Depends on how they will fit your operation. In my humble opinion beef has to peak soon if it has not already. I walked in a meat shop today and looked at prices. Wow! I don't pay much attention because I don't buy a lot of meat in the store. Too expensive for most. Besides hamburger cheapest cut was over $5 a pound.


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## ontario hay man (Jul 18, 2013)

Buy them up before I do  cattle inventory in both countries is lowest in 50 years I dont think you can go wrong.


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## Grateful11 (Apr 5, 2009)

If you can buy cattle at really good prices right now consider yourself lucky. Around here the highest price per pound is in the 300-400lbs. range. Friend of ours just sold several Charolais calves in that range and got over $2 lbs. Wife and son have something like 24 calves right now out of the herd with about 14 yet to be born. She lost 3 calves this season, first time she's lost a calf in about 4 or 5 years, all were still born, one was backwards. She has her breeding stock about where she wants it and may actually cull out a couple.

BTW: Where did you see Barley at $2. I just did a quick search and I'm seeing $6-6.50/bu


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## carcajou (Jan 28, 2011)

That's all it was worth off the combine up here, it has gone up to about $2.40 at the farm gate. A neighbour just sold 870 lb calves last week at $ 1.68 lb and he didn't top the sale. Pretty wild when calves bring more than bred cows.

FYI In 1973 a new JD 4430 was $ 14,000 and barley was $ 3/bu

2014 a new JD 6140m is ten x as much and barley is $2.85/bu at the elevator.


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## hog987 (Apr 5, 2011)

carcajou said:


> That's all it was worth off the combine up here, it has gone up to about $2.40 at the farm gate. A neighbour just sold 870 lb calves last week at $ 1.68 lb and he didn't top the sale. Pretty wild when calves bring more than bred cows.
> 
> FYI In 1973 a new JD 4430 was $ 14,000 and barley was $ 3/bu
> 
> 2014 a new JD 6140m is ten x as much and barley is $2.85/bu at the elevator.


But you have to consider that now off the same land base you can easily get 3 times the barley. Of course one big part of that was getting rid of summer fallow. But true things are harder now. It was easier for Grandpa to but 3/4 of land in the past than it is for me to buy 1/4 now.

How many cows are in this herd?


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## CockrellHillFarms (Aug 30, 2011)

I've bought 40 heifers in the last 3 months. Just as Ontanio Hay Man said, beef inventories are very low. You can say it will top out but your not taking into consideration supply and demand. Demand would have to drop a lot before prices come down. But if your in it to make a quick buck, I wouldnt be buying cattle. The price of cattle has the return pushed further out depending on what your paying to buy in. If your not in it for the long haul, I would say dont do it.


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## Tim/South (Dec 12, 2011)

Cattle are bringing good money right now. Supply numbers are down so that seems to be in the cattle producers favor.

The other half of supply and demand is the demand side. We have almost priced beef out of the grocery list for the common man.

Box beef prices fell nearly $20 last week and a little more this week trying to find a bottom.

The slaughter number last week was 566,000. We have been @ 600,000 and that is down from 630,000 we normally process each week. Retail orders for all cuts of beef is down. Pork and chicken orders are up slightly.

National Beef announced they will close their beef processing plant in California in June.

We may be seeing supply and demand finding common ground and the big boom may be over. That does not mean the bottom will fall out any time soon. We are just going to have to see where prices level out. It is a good bet that cattle will make good money for several years. The North American cattle herd can not be turned on and off the way chicken and pork can.

Our dollar does not go as far in the grocery store as it has in years past. One thing keeping the beef moving off the shelves is that food stamp recipients have increased three fold since 2007. The free meat and the higher end steaks will always be in demand.

As per norm it is the middle class working person expected to shoulder the load.

One point is clear. Not many young people are going into cattle or have the desire to follow in their father's footsteps. With prices setting record highs, many around here are selling out.

Makes you wonder who will be raising cattle 10 years from now. My personal opinion is we will never see the cattle numbers completely recover. I believe cattle will make good money for years to come.

Opening the flood gates and allowing unchecked imports is about the only thing I can see that would cripple our market.


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