# Anybody have a Crystal Ball ?



## snowball (Feb 7, 2015)

My neighbor stopped yesterday , He has a custom haying business, ( In which I work for him when I have the time ) He asked if I was going to be able to help, and offered to help put up my hay if I would give him more time. Anyway the point of this is , He was going to buy another New SP MC. and wanted to make sure I would be around to run it... Last fall when we were in his shop he made the comment that he wished He hadn't bought the 1 he has now it was new last season , He said that He didn't know if he had enough customers to justify owning it , I asked what changed between last Nov. and now ?? Basicly his answer was 3.00 corn, said that he pickup another 1000 + ac and more guys are going to seed ground this spring. My first thought was hay is cheap now 70-90 per ton for dairy quality what will it be next yr ? 45. or 60. per ton ? ( I realize a lot can change ) As he talking I am watching the wind blow and the thermometer rise to almost 80 normal here is 43 . Then last evening I'am reading some of the shout outs on here and I see some of the same thoughts as mine maybe another dry summer...Now I'am wondering maybe I should be going to the auctions and buying hay .?? Good hay can be bough all day long for 60. per ton I can't hardly put hay up for that price.!! SO AFTER ALL THIS MY QUESTION IS WHAT ARE SOME OF YOUR GUYS THOUGHTS AND PRICES IN YOUR ARE ????


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## 8350HiTech (Jul 26, 2013)

General auction rule (with some leeway to account for time, effort, and storage) is:

If you think you wouldn't sell hay for the price it's selling for, you should be buying it.


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## Mike120 (May 4, 2009)

I don't see a lot of land not being planted around me, but I mainly feed what I grow and may add some cows for any excess. I did replace my ground moisture sensors last year with new ones and a wireless transmitter. They saved my butt before the 2011 drought and are the closest thing to a crystal ball I know of.


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## NewBerlinBaler (May 30, 2011)

A comment on agricultural economics in general...

If corn & bean prices are down (and expected to remain low thru 2015), will farmers who normally plant these crops switch to growing hay instead - and push hay prices down due to excess supply?

That's my concern.

Gary


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## Chessiedog (Jul 24, 2009)

NewBerlinBaler said:


> A comment on agricultural economics in general...
> 
> If corn & bean prices are down (and expected to remain low thru 2015), will farmers who normally plant these crops switch to growing hay instead - and push hay prices down due to excess supply?
> 
> ...


My guess would be no . At least here . My thinking is guys farming mostly full time any ways lets say 800 acres or more .

1. Most would have to go buy equipment.

2. Big squares or small , there is no money in rounds at least here, have to have some kind of storage.

3.Maybe the biggest . You need contacts ! You can't just bale 100 or 200 acres and call your local grain elevator and say hey " what you giving for hay today" .

Just my 2 cents worth . No crystal ball ,just my thoughts as to why they wouldn't .I'm sure some one else may have thoughts on why they might .

But if row crop prices were to stay low on a long term who knows.


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## snowball (Feb 7, 2015)

Chessiedog said:


> My guess would be no . At least here . My thinking is guys farming mostly full time any ways lets say 800 acres or more .
> 
> 1. Most would have to go buy equipment.
> 
> ...


I wasn't looking to really speculate was thinking about buying extra for myself better to have to much cheap hay than not enough higher priced stuff, Plus in this area everyone has a good line of hay making equipment & there are hay sales 3 days every week herewith in a 15 mile radius of me, Hay is a major crop in this part of the country I guess the basic point i was asking is what is every one else seeing or hearing in their area ?? I know guys in the corn belt are not going to park their combines in favor of the balers


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## Chessiedog (Jul 24, 2009)

Sorry guess I misunderstood the question . I never was good at test !


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## snowball (Feb 7, 2015)

Chessiedog said:


> Sorry guess I misunderstood the question . I never was good at test !


Don't worry Chessiedog ,  I probably did a poor of explaining myself, I sometimes forget this is a big world . I never was good at testing either


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## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

One thing to keep in mind....at least in this part of the country....there is a lot of 1/2 ass hay....and not a lot of premium type hay. Excellent hay has always sold here....and we all know how difficult and expensive it is to make premium hay.

Regards, Mike


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## NDVA HAYMAN (Nov 24, 2009)

NewBerlinBaler said:


> A comment on agricultural economics in general...
> 
> If corn & bean prices are down (and expected to remain low thru 2015), will farmers who normally plant these crops switch to growing hay instead - and push hay prices down due to excess supply?
> 
> ...


. Gary, Since the government doesn't offer crop insurance and other programs for hay, I think most farmers will continue to raise grain and take their chances. I don't think you have to worry with them competing with you.


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## Grateful11 (Apr 5, 2009)

I'm with Chessiedog on this one. I can't see the corn, bean and grain folks around here switching to hay. They're already up to their necks in equipment for what they're doing now. They're too use to just going out and burning down a field and come right back in with huge no-till drills and planters and hoping and praying for good weather. We have quite a few guys around here using Shelbourne Stripper grain headers now and coming right back in with Soybeans and drilling into knee high grain stubble. They're selling a lot of headers at the local dealer. I just think it would be such a drastic change for them that they'll and sweat it out for higher prices.

As far as hay prices, my wife has been scanning Craiglist every night for different things and it looks like hay is really starting to show up on there now. Our guess is they've carried it over hoping for higher prices and it's getting closer and closer to hay making time and that they're trying to unload it before first cutting hay shows up on the market. A month ago almost no hay was Craigslist. She ended up buying about 50 4x5's to help carry them over until first cutting here.

BTW: She's going to try spray close to 40 acres of small grain, Oats and Rye tomorrow.


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## snowball (Feb 7, 2015)

Well we had a very good season last year here I've been either going or watching the results every week from the hay auctions , the amounts of hay each week are tremendous, As I posted earlier, we are very short on moisture and who knows what is ahead, I guess I'am in a spotI don't know what to do for sure. that I feel if hay will stay this cheap I will buy hay for feed and run more cows on my grass , I've always thought is is way more profitable to let the cow harvest her feed than for me to bale cheap hay and wear out my equipment to sell cheap hay I just would hate to be buying high dollar hay next winter if it got hot and dry. :huh:


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## 8350HiTech (Jul 26, 2013)

snowball said:


> Well we had a very good season last year here I've been either going or watching the results every week from the hay auctions , the amounts of hay each week are tremendous, As I posted earlier, we are very short on moisture and who knows what is ahead, I guess I'am in a spotI don't know what to do for sure. that I feel if hay will stay this cheap I will buy hay for feed and run more cows on my grass , I've always thought is is way more profitable to let the cow harvest her feed than for me to bale cheap hay and wear out my equipment to sell cheap hay I just would hate to be buying high dollar hay next winter if it got hot and dry. :huh:


If you have the money, buy some cheap hay now. You're saying it's selling for right around the cost of production. I don't see how you can go wrong owning this cheap hay in any of your scenarios.


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## haybaler101 (Nov 30, 2008)

If you are that short on water now, first cutting yields are starting to drop already. Supply will shorten up in a hurry.


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## rjmoses (Apr 4, 2010)

34 good looking Reed Canary grass bales, tested at 20% CP, 5x6, 1700#, went for $21 each this weekend at auction. I had chatted with the driver while he was being unloaded. (He had it tested and weighed)

Subtract 12% commission and he got $18.50/bale. His trip was about 150 miles (both ways). At about $1/mile for diesel, he spent $150. so he netted about $14/bale. Subtract another $2/bale for net wrap and he's down to $12.

I'm sure he could use a better crystal ball. (I think mine's developing cataracts.)

Ralph


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## Thorim (Jan 19, 2015)

The MIGHTY MAGIC 8 Ball says:


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## snowball (Feb 7, 2015)

rjmoses said:


> 34 good looking Reed Canary grass bales, tested at 20% CP, 5x6, 1700#, went for $21 each this weekend at auction. I had chatted with the driver while he was being unloaded. (He had it tested and weighed)
> 
> Subtract 12% commission and he got $18.50/bale. His trip was about 150 miles (both ways). At about $1/mile for diesel, he spent $150. so he netted about $14/bale. Subtract another $2/bale for net wrap and he's down to $12.
> 
> ...


I've been buying hay at the auction since the 1st of the yr because it has been cheaper to buy it than haul my own 72 miles to the other farms have bought a little over 150 5x6 bales and have averaged 28.78 a bale most has been 1st cutting or new seeding , I've bought 4or 5 times so it wasn't like I got lucky 1 time . I buy it by the ton so the average bale weight has been 1738 lbs.


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## NDVA HAYMAN (Nov 24, 2009)

Even though I raise a lot of hay, I still buy all year long if it's cheap enough and has some decent quality. Everyone has been low in hay the last 3 years so it's good to have. I will buy it only if I can leave it on the edge of the field and don't have to bring it home. I surely don't want the costs of moving it twice especially if I am selling it to someone else.


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## snowball (Feb 7, 2015)

That is the only down fall to my plan is if I buy at the auction it HAS to be out of there in 48 hrs and if I buy alot then I have to worry some what about running out of storage unless I wrap my hay which adds about 8 to 10.00 a bale on my hay


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