# Tough 6 Weeks For Beef



## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

Beef sharply down....hopefully the bottom.

Regards, Mike

http://www.agweb.com/article/market-highlights-have-cattle-prices-hit-rock-bottom-NAA-university-news-release/


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## TJH (Mar 23, 2014)

They last 3 weeks at Joplin (3rd largest market in the country) they have knocked steers 55 dollars a hundred and heifers 60. This was bound to happen sooner or later. We were in the store the other day and a whole untrimed brisket was 92.00 dollars. The trouble with beef is that unlike chicken there are too many people between the farm and store taking a piece of the pie.


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## PaMike (Dec 7, 2013)

Buddy sent a straight truck load of fats in. $9000 LESS than the load 3 weeks before. He got $1.28 lb. I rubbed it in that I sold HOLSTEINS private to a retail seller at $1.30/lb....


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## 8350HiTech (Jul 26, 2013)

I'm hoping some people get scared. I want to buy some cheap cows.


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## hog987 (Apr 5, 2011)

8350HiTech said:


> I'm hoping some people get scared. I want to buy some cheap cows.


Come to Alberta. With the high hay prices and people hearing about lower cattle prices some people will jump the gun with out thinking and sell. Iam hopping to buy a few cheap bred cows too later this fall or winter.


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## Hokelund Farm (Feb 4, 2014)

Same here


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## JayTN (Jul 12, 2015)

This spring when I contracted to hold all my heifers for a guy to buy as replacements, I was a little reluctant. Glad I did now! Also have several steers held back for beef and they are already spoken for based on previous prices. My worry about taking a potential hit on those looks now like a good decision. They sure will help offset the lower price on the rest if the price continues to slide or stays where it is now. I will look at increasing my herd this fall also with some cheap cows.


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## Tim/South (Dec 12, 2011)

I hope the market finds a bottom soon. A lot of people loosing money right now. Those who do not have to sell to make bank notes will be alright once the dust settles.

Box beef prices are falling but are not moving as well as expected. The meat packers are making a huge profit right now even with falling box beef prices.

I saw where a pen of fats lost $600 per head in Omaha this week. Bankers have had the "sky is the limit" mindset because limited supply guaranteed a good market. The other half of supply is demand and the demand is simply not there. The consumer has been buying pork and chicken.

The increasing dollar value is good for imported beef, bad for exports. Australia beef imports are up 50%.

Weekly slaughter numbers have increased 10,000 or better since the price decline and beef is still not moving off the shelves well.

Once those $1,500 calves move through the cycle we will have a better idea on where a realistic price will settle.

I was lucky and sold spring calves just before the toilet flushed. I usually clean up the pastures in December. I have enough hay to keep the late spring calves until next spring. By then we should have prices sorted out and money will be about as good as we can expect.


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## bbos2 (Mar 20, 2015)

Bought a group of feeders back in the beginning of May at the absolute top of the feeder cattle market ( it might not have been the top but I felt that way after writing the check) mid June came around and couldn't keep my eyes off the market fearing a slide in the market. Put a pencil to a fat contract to jbs and worked out a good profit so I pulled the trigger and sold, with the feeling I may have left money on the table. Well now that the bottom fell out I feel like one of my best decisions of the year. Now I can enjoy getting these guys fat, and not have to watch 300-400 dollars a head loss be loaded on semis next fall. I kept thinking this would go the way of the 8 dollar corn market, but never dreamed this fast.


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## carcajou (Jan 28, 2011)

I sold my yearlings on Sept 17th. Calves were to high to buy back IMO. I think i'll just watch the market for awhile and be on the lookout for some bargins.


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## glasswrongsize (Sep 15, 2015)

QUOTE: "I hope the market finds a bottom soon. A lot of people loosing money right now." I ask the following as a desire for understanding, not as an attack on the statement:

Are people losing money right now, or are they not making as much as anticipated?...Counting their chickens before they hatch, and pre-spending projected income?

If it is a true loss, is it due to too-high of a purchase price on their calves that has taken a correction?

73, Mark


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## bbos2 (Mar 20, 2015)

glasswrongsize said:


> QUOTE: "I hope the market finds a bottom soon. A lot of people loosing money right now." I ask the following as a desire for understanding, not as an attack on the statement:
> 
> Are people losing money right now, or are they not making as much as anticipated?...Counting their chickens before they hatch, and pre-spending projected income?
> 
> ...


But has beef made a "correction" maybe just for the farmer? I'm yet to see beef priced down dramatically in the super markets. The packers are making good money yet. There break evens still have built in profits. And w e all know the super markets are making money. 
There is just so much money involed this go around. Let's just say a 1400 $ feeder and 600$ t9 feed it which I think is coservative. So there is 2 grand and I'll work for free and supply the building and equipment to make this work. If u contract right you can make couple hundred dollars a head. 8F you didn't u can lose hundreds a head like tim was saying.

So the farmer works and invests all equipment for a year and looses money. While the packet and supermarket handle the same steer for a fraction of the time with no monetary correction on there part and are still collecting. 
JMHO


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## azmike (Jan 4, 2015)

Under "normal" markets when do you feel is the best time to buy replacements or a few stockers? After Thanksgiving or??


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## BWfarms (Aug 3, 2015)

azmike said:


> Under "normal" markets when do you feel is the best time to buy replacements or a few stockers? After Thanksgiving or??


The best time is when the price is right. It really depends on what is being offered for sale. Registered is going to stay solid, no doubt about that. Commercial replacement heifers bred or not is going to be a hundred off or so. Around me, if you can find good stockers, you jump on it.

I would watch the guy that has had no grass all summer and his barns are bare.


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## azmike (Jan 4, 2015)

Will Rogers recommended to make money in the stock market don't buy stocks unless they are going to gain in value.


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## JayTN (Jul 12, 2015)

The best time to buy replacements or stockers here is when the neighbors barn gets emptied of hay and he has no pasture left. That's generally in January or Feb.


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## Tim/South (Dec 12, 2011)

azmike said:


> Under "normal" markets when do you feel is the best time to buy replacements or a few stockers? After Thanksgiving or??


Prices may vary by region. Here in the deep south summer calves prices go down due to the heat and shipping issues. Mortality is higher for southern summer calves and the price reflects it.

From Christmas until the first of March we see another decrease in prices.

When the fall run is in full swing and a lot of calves are selling, the better calves do alright, more common calves take a hit.

Spring prices are usually top dollar for us. Lasts until about the end of June.


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## Tim/South (Dec 12, 2011)

I am rethinking my plan to hold calves until spring. Thursday a 400 lb. calf brought more dollars than the 600 lb. calves.

Stockers were buying as many 4 weight calves as they could. Those calves will be ready to be put on feed come spring. I will be competing with them then, the same as now.

I may sell in December as I always do and take my lumps.


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## carcajou (Jan 28, 2011)

It was the 400-450 weight calves at the auction i was at that were too high i thought. For a few hundred more a guy could own a cow that day.


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## hillside hay (Feb 4, 2013)

It has been that way here for a while now. Week old calves are still strong. 3-5 hundred while 5 weight beefers run around 550-750. Dairy is even weirder depending on who is in attendance.


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