# Its been a pretty good week for the markets.



## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

Markets end up pretty good for the week after a shaky start.

Grains Try To Rally | Farm Journal Magazine

Regards, Mike


----------



## NDVA HAYMAN (Nov 24, 2009)

I'm glad that I sold all of my grain early. I'm also happy to see commodities inching back up some. Mike, I tried to respond to your pm but I don't think it went thru. I'm on vacation in the Dominican Republic and the service here is sketchy to say the least. Mike


----------



## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

Good for you Mike, enjoy your time in the DR. Beautiful birds in that part of the world. I understand about selling early....then peace. I really think with the China grain imports and the weather pattern we have had for the last several years that grains will again be really good in 2012. Really good to see your insight around.

Regards, Mike


----------



## mlappin (Jun 25, 2009)

Yah, their inching back up, but in the long run maybe shooting ourselves in the foot. Prices of grain get too high then end users just drop livestock numbers, or in our area hay gets high, stays high, then everybody and their cousin plants hay and the price ends up in the toilet.


----------



## K WEST FARMS (Apr 4, 2011)

Have some 2011 corn to sell yet....small sale Jan. over $6.00 net.... another forward Feb. sale at $6.07 ...and will sell more for Mar. , Apr. , or May.....of course I hope at $6.00 also. We alway have poor basis up here , minus .50 is usually as good as it gets . New crop corn is probably minus .70 right now !!! John


----------



## haybaler101 (Nov 30, 2008)

K WEST FARMS said:


> Have some 2011 corn to sell yet....small sale Jan. over $6.00 net.... another forward Feb. sale at $6.07 ...and will sell more for Mar. , Apr. , or May.....of course I hope at $6.00 also. We alway have poor basis up here , minus .50 is usually as good as it gets . New crop corn is probably minus .70 right now !!! John


Wow! That sucks, we are at plus 25 basis right now on corn and only drop to minus 15 for harvest. But we are in a huge corn vacuum here. Two fuel ethanol plants, one drinking alcohol plant, 2 huge turkey feed mills, several hog mills, and a little stream called the Ohio River that sucks anything left to New Orleans.


----------



## steve IN (Jan 13, 2010)

I still some 11 corn to sell sold some this month befor report for 6.25-6.32. Plan to move rest at as soon as price breaks six again, almost therer. Sold some 12 corn at 5.28 and 5.52. !2 beans north of 11.50. I think its time to take advantage of these prices because I think were headed to sub 4 and sub9 by harvest.


----------



## NDVA HAYMAN (Nov 24, 2009)

mlappin said:


> Yah, their inching back up, but in the long run maybe shooting ourselves in the foot. Prices of grain get too high then end users just drop livestock numbers, or in our area hay gets high, stays high, then everybody and their cousin plants hay and the price ends up in the toilet.


Understood Marty. I do know what high grain prices do to us as farmers but I also know that you have to reach a certain price to pay for your inputs and cash rents if that is the case. I also know that there will be a big correction in the future. What and when, I do not know. We are in a catch 22 situation! That's why I contracted my grain early to cover my costs and make a profit. Now I can add more grain storage to my farm so that I can control when I sell.


----------



## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

mlappin said:


> hay gets high, stays high, then everybody and their cousin plants hay and the price ends up in the toilet.


That can happen, but "everybody and their cousins" do not small square bale. It is way too much work and expense and that is what helps protect the small square market. That is the lone reason I small square.

Regards, Mike


----------



## mlappin (Jun 25, 2009)

Vol said:


> That can happen, but "everybody and their cousins" do not small square bale. It is way too much work and expense and that is what helps protect the small square market. That is the lone reason I small square.
> 
> Regards, Mike


Around here the last time hay got high, small squares were sometimes worth _less_ than large squares or rounds. Doesn't cost much to buy a small square baler and a couple of flat racks, we also have a lot of old barns around with mows and the only thing they are good for is stacking small squares in.


----------



## mlappin (Jun 25, 2009)

NDVA HAYMAN said:


> Understood Marty. I do know what high grain prices do to us as farmers but I also know that you have to reach a certain price to pay for your inputs and cash rents if that is the case. I also know that there will be a big correction in the future. What and when, I do not know. We are in a catch 22 situation! That's why I contracted my grain early to cover my costs and make a profit. Now I can add more grain storage to my farm so that I can control when I sell.


Problem with corrections are grain prices can and do drop like a rock, inputs and cash rents take a LONG time to go down in relation to the lower grain prices. Even if corn was around $2.50 a bushel again with $6 beans, I don't think we'll ever see fertilizer in the low 200's again. I can remember father raising cain when potash broke $200/ton.


----------



## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

mlappin said:


> Problem with corrections are grain prices can and do drop like a rock, inputs and cash rents take a LONG time to go down in relation to the lower grain prices. Even if corn was around $2.50 a bushel again with $6 beans, I don't think we'll ever see fertilizer in the low 200's again. I can remember father raising cain when potash broke $200/ton.


I rember anhydrous breaking 100 per ton.

I feel old!


----------



## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

mlappin said:


> Around here the last time hay got high, small squares were sometimes worth _less_ than large squares or rounds. Doesn't cost much to buy a small square baler and a couple of flat racks, we also have a lot of old barns around with mows and the only thing they are good for is stacking small squares in.


Strange how location affects markets. Swmnhay mentioned a few days ago about how rounds sell better than small squares per ton in his local. That has never been the case in my part of the South. Typically, small squares will bring 3-4 times what rounds will bring per ton here. I remember reading a post by Hay Wilson in Texas that small squares also brought 3 or 4 times more than rounds per ton in his country. When I was speaking of expense of making small squares, I was speaking of not only overhead costs but also of LABOR costs. If one reduces his labor cost through automation then overhead costs soar. Small square prices here have steadily increased in the last 25 years...no declines...of course, having a healthy horse population in the South greatly helps demand. Putting up hay in small squares vs. rounds is quite a bit more costly if one puts up very much tonnage. Much more labor intensive. Speaking of "mows"(called "lofts" here), not too many folks do that anymore here.....they stack on the barn floors.....just makes more sense in this day and age(unloading and loading out).

Regards, Mike


----------



## mlappin (Jun 25, 2009)

Well part of that is the fact that a lot of horse people at the time had a lot of horse's and were getting lazy and started to prefer large bales over the manual labor of feeding small squares. Once the myth that a round bale will kill horses was broken, some years I sold more rounds to horse people than to the dairy guys.

Now with the economy in the toilet a lot of people cut back on the hay burners as their spouse might be unemployed or the over time has dried up and they can't afford to keep enough horses around to justify rounds over small squares. Also with fewer horses on the property, the round bale might not be consumed fast enough to stay ahead of spoilage if fed outside. A lot are living paycheck to paycheck now and several pick up loads of only 30-40 small squares might be at the auction.


----------

