# Cattle Prices Headed Back Up



## Tim/South (Dec 12, 2011)

Cattle futures have jumped $17 cwt. since Monday (three days). I have never seen them make that kind of recovery before.

The adjusted USDA report and the repeal of COOL seems to have put the market in a good mood.


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## deadmoose (Oct 30, 2011)

Two thumbs up! Beef is worth it!


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## bbos2 (Mar 20, 2015)

The doom and gloom has really been getting to me latly . every magazine cover story is negative it seems. Ralleys like this give me optimism. Nice to finally see an upside this time of year. Hopefully it's here to stay. It's kinda unbelievable how volitale the market can be.


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## Tim/South (Dec 12, 2011)

Carcass weights are down, signaling the back log of over fed cattle is finally in decline. The slaughter number has increased substantially the last two weeks.

Nice 4 weight calves are $20 cwt. higher this week than last week.

Asking price on fat cattle is pushing $1.28 cwt. in Nebraska. I thought it would be 6 months before we saw this kind of recovery.

I have never seen the cattle market this volitale.


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## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

These crazy market swings are good for no one.It's going to break some feedlots just because of timing.Talked to 2 feeders last week and it's not good one group he was looking at a $700 hd loss.Rebound in the price this week helps but he has a long way to go to break even.


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## Colby (Mar 5, 2012)

To bad everything is closed down till after the first of the year. 
I took quite a lick last week but I had to get out from under them.


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## Tim/South (Dec 12, 2011)

Colby said:


> To bad everything is closed down till after the first of the year.
> I took quite a lick last week but I had to get out from under them.


As did I.

Still got $1.97 last Thursday on light 4 weight vaccinated steers. I believe the buyers knew the prices were going up. The same calves would have sold for $1.70 the week before.


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## Waterway64 (Dec 2, 2011)

I think the physiology of cattle buyers is reflected in the cattle market more than supply inventory. Last year they drove a up market up past logic thinking it couldn't go down. This year when it started to get back where it should have been they panic sold and drove it down much feather than it should have gone with many of them losing big time. Hopefully those remaining will get out there pencils and realize there is a profit to be had. I think prices have room to improve some more yet as we approach spring and with the cheap feed show a realistic profit.


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## Tim/South (Dec 12, 2011)

The USDA pretty much dictates how those sitting behind a desk price cattle. The USDA reports kept saying we would be in short supply for years as the herd rebuilt. Bankers and future prices all said to invest in cattle. Retail prices jumped to where the average consumer backed off. Demand is the other half of supply and demand.

Fat cattle backed up in the feed lots. Weekly slaughter numbers dropped 100K.

COOL placed a lot of uncertainty on the cattle industry across the board. Then the USDA released a report saying the recovery in numbers was almost complete. Declining cattle prices hit the floor.

Feed lots lost major money and could not afford to buy replacement stockers. Stocker operators could not move yearlings ready to go on feed. That left no money for the stocker to buy our calves.

Now the USDA updated and claims we have no more cattle than last year. Congress repealed COOL. Prices are headed back up and will eventually settle where the consumer dictates.


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## luke strawwalker (Jul 31, 2014)

Which is why we need to cut USDA "out of the loop" information-wise...

Let the BUYERS figure out how many cattle are out there and where the supply-demand curve is going.... STOP giving them "inside information" via the friggin' worthless USDA...

Later! OL J R


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## deadmoose (Oct 30, 2011)

I got a survey in the mail the other day... Not only did I overpay them to make it and send it, I had to waste my time fetching it and throwing it in the trash. Then, I had to pay the garbage man.

At least him and the mail lady earned their keep...


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## hog987 (Apr 5, 2011)

Waterway64 said:


> I think the physiology of cattle buyers is reflected in the cattle market more than supply inventory. Last year they drove a up market up past logic thinking it couldn't go down. This year when it started to get back where it should have been they panic sold and drove it down much feather than it should have gone with many of them losing big time. Hopefully those remaining will get out there pencils and realize there is a profit to be had. I think prices have room to improve some more yet as we approach spring and with the cheap feed show a realistic profit.


You hit the nail on the head about what controls the market. Its not supply and demand its fear and greed.


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## hog987 (Apr 5, 2011)

luke strawwalker said:


> Which is why we need to cut USDA "out of the loop" information-wise...
> 
> Let the BUYERS figure out how many cattle are out there and where the supply-demand curve is going.... STOP giving them "inside information" via the friggin' worthless USDA...
> 
> Later! OL J R


Just like the stats Canada agricultural survey. They are phoning me everyday to answer the cattle survey. Usuall phone when iam not home, except sunday morning at 7am. Leave a message to phone back. Will when I got time they are closed. But I really dont want to talk to them anyways. But guess what they do here. If you dont answer them they say its the law and if you dont than they will put you into jail. Never heard of anyone actually going to jail but when they threaten it thats when guys usually start lieing. Yes I have 1000 breading bulls and one cow and expect to have twins at calving time so I will end up with 2002 calves with a 150% death lose. The funny thing is most of the people I talk to from stats Canada dont know the difference between a chicken and a cow .


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## BWfarms (Aug 3, 2015)

hog987 said:


> The funny thing is most of the people I talk to from stats Canada dont know the difference between a chicken and a cow .


Wait there's a difference. I'm going to sue ChicFila because they've lead me to believe that four legged black and white thing keep telling me to Eat More Chicken and then it would Moo.


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## BWfarms (Aug 3, 2015)

deadmoose said:


> Two thumbs up! Beef is worth it!


Jeez shut up, I need it to stay down a bit so I can buy more feeders and it's worth my time. I think I'm going to have way to much hay. It's still spring in NC.

Well I guess having to much ain't that bad, just means I'll have to sell more next year.


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## luke strawwalker (Jul 31, 2014)

deadmoose said:


> I got a survey in the mail the other day... Not only did I overpay them to make it and send it, I had to waste my time fetching it and throwing it in the trash. Then, I had to pay the garbage man.
> 
> At least him and the mail lady earned their keep...


I'm about ready to mount my mailbox directly to a burn barrel-- that way I can dump the 95% of what we get in the mail right back in... once a week give it a squirt of lighter fluid and toss in a match... problem solved...

[email protected] idiot neighbors (BTO's) knucklehead "no habla de English" hired hands knock down our mailbox every so often because they're too stupid to know how to drive a tractor and implement down the road... last time they knocked it down, I left it down for about 3 months... Betty pays all the bills on the phone or computer anyway, so I don't need the friggin' mailbox anyway... Only thing in there is stupid jury duty summons and bills that have already been paid... IOW, not a [email protected] thing I want or need...

That and yellow dog "journalism" farm ag-mag magazine rag sheets that I wouldn't line a birdcage with anyway...

Betty FINALLY made me put the mailbox back up for her crap... if it were me, I wouldn't even have one of the [email protected] things... nothing but carrying garbage into the house that has to be carried right back out again...

Later! OL J R


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## luke strawwalker (Jul 31, 2014)

hog987 said:


> You hit the nail on the head about what controls the market. Its not supply and demand its fear and greed.


That's ALL "markets"... serve about the same use as the craps tables in Vegas...

Later! OL J R


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## luke strawwalker (Jul 31, 2014)

hog987 said:


> Just like the stats Canada agricultural survey. They are phoning me everyday to answer the cattle survey. Usuall phone when iam not home, except sunday morning at 7am. Leave a message to phone back. Will when I got time they are closed. But I really dont want to talk to them anyways. But guess what they do here. If you dont answer them they say its the law and if you dont than they will put you into jail. Never heard of anyone actually going to jail but when they threaten it thats when guys usually start lieing. Yes I have 1000 breading bulls and one cow and expect to have twins at calving time so I will end up with 2002 calves with a 150% death lose. The funny thing is most of the people I talk to from stats Canada dont know the difference between a chicken and a cow .


Yeah, about like that "census of agriculture" here in the US... "response required by law"...

Okay... so I "guesstimate"... of course my estimates are 1% accurate... IOW, the "actual number" is either 1/100 or 100 times what the "estimate" I put down... close enough for gubmint work...

I steadfastly refuse to participate in ANY data collection not required by law, and for the ones that are, well, my "estimates" are all they're going to get...

Later! OL J R


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## Waterway64 (Dec 2, 2011)

Thank the Lord for burn barrels and caller ID


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## glasswrongsize (Sep 15, 2015)

Waterway64 said:


> Thank the Lord for burn barrels and caller ID


I want someone make caller ID a thing of the past. I want caller IQ, Might miss a few calls from "horsey people" as they couldn't make the cut... 

73, Mark


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## luke strawwalker (Jul 31, 2014)

Better yet, dump the landline and go strictly cell...

Later! OL J R


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## BWfarms (Aug 3, 2015)

luke strawwalker said:


> Better yet, dump the landline and go strictly cell...Later! OL J R


Problem is telemarketers now call but it's so much easier to block the number on an iPhone. Just a quick swipe and voila. Works for obnoxious people too.

Have Fun Tip:
Turn the speaker on next time and set it by the tractors exhaust. Continue to have a conversation with them. The key to the game is whoever says,"Huh, What, Excuse me, or any variation of confusion" the least wins. So just carry on and have a casual conversation since the caller and you are busy working.


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## deadmoose (Oct 30, 2011)

luke strawwalker said:


> Better yet, dump the landline and go strictly cell...Later! OL J R


What's that?


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## luke strawwalker (Jul 31, 2014)

deadmoose said:


> What's that?


Yeah... that took a few years to do, but finally convinced the wife that a landline was more worthless in an emergency than a cell phone...

If the towers go down, we got bigger fish to fry. She figured the landline would be more reliable, say if the power goes out... til I pointed out that the cordless phone does not work in a power outage...

She thought it might be more reliable in a prowler/burglar situation, until the cows grazed too close to the house and pulled the wires out of the box with a misplaced horn...

She finally saw my way of thinking and agreed to dump the land line with all the extra taxes and fees and garbage on it that cost a fortune for no purpose... at least she'd dumped long distance on it a long while back, but still...

I don't want to talk to anybody local anyway, and we used the cell for long distance for years already anyway...

Later! OL J R


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