# Corn prices



## ARD Farm (Jul 12, 2012)

Not exactly sure where to post this but it sure looks like corn prices (new corn) will drop below $3.00/bushel maybe even below $2.50.

I don't row crop but the corn around here is over 10 feet tall and the ears are huge.

I burn corn in a multifuel stove but I've been burning pellets for the last 4 years because corn prices are too high.

Looks like this year I'll be picking up 6 or 800 bushel and filling my GSI. and roasting corn again.

Corn provides a better BTU output than pellets per pound consumed.

Already pre bought 5 ton of pellets. Looks like I'll have at least half for next year. I mix my corn and pellets at 50% each.

Looks as though the producers are about to take a beating on field corn.


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## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

I wonder where the guys are that said corn can't go down that low again?Markets are bull shit anyway,if we produce a couple percent to much prices crash,if a few percent short they skyrocket.Somewhere in the middle would be a lot better.Inputs,Rent,Land,and taxes have skyrocketed and will come down slower then the crop prices have.


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## rjmoses (Apr 4, 2010)

At $4 corn, I would expect a lot of $20,000 land to become available at $2,000 in about 2-3 years.

Ralph


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## Waterway64 (Dec 2, 2011)

ARD does burning corn give off a particular Oder in your home? I have heard that it does and have hesitated to switch from pellets. Swimhay it isn't that it couldn't go down but that producers could have locked in in the five dollar range for quite awhile early in the season and didn't. Mel


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## ARD Farm (Jul 12, 2012)

swmnhay said:


> I wonder where the guys are that said corn can't go down that low again?Markets are bull shit anyway,if we produce a couple percent to much prices crash,if a few percent short they skyrocket.Somewhere in the middle would be a lot better.Inputs,Rent,Land,and taxes have skyrocketed and will come down slower then the crop prices have.


Absolutely and why I never considered row cropping. I can't take the up's and downs. Payments and rent only go up....



rjmoses said:


> At $4 corn, I would expect a lot of $20,000 land to become available at $2,000 in about 2-3 years.
> 
> Ralph


...and/or farm auctions on late model equipment. The guy down the road, a dedicated JD owner appears to be leveraged to the max. Every year he has new equipment. Either he hit the lotto or he's living on borrowed time.



Waterway64 said:


> ARD does burning corn give off a particular Oder in your home? I have heard that it does and have hesitated to switch from pellets. Swimhay it isn't that it couldn't go down but that producers could have locked in in the five dollar range for quite awhile early in the season and didn't. Mel


No, not at all. I roasted corn for years before it got really popular, in fact, I wore out the first multifuel unit I had an Amazeablaze. I now have a USSC multifuel, been burning it for about 8 years now. First 4 on straight corn and the last 4 on pellets.

We actually heat the entire house with it (we have excellent insulation and windows, spent upwatds of 90 grand having the old century home redone).

The only 'smell' I get is if I open the door to clean the clinkers out of the burn pot and thats minor. Smells like burnt popcorn a bit.

Roasting corn produces more BTU's oer pound than pellets but it has some drawbacks, most notably is the production of nitric acid in the exhaust gas so the vent pipe has to be rated for corn (double wall stainless) and you have to clean it every spring. I take mine apart and pressure wash it inside.

Depending on where corn prices go, I may run straight corn and leave my 5 prebought tons in the barn or I may run a 50-50 mix. I can set my unit on automatic or vary the parameters for percentage of corn versus pellets.

Probably the best investment for heat we ever made. We have propane out here and propane is expensive heat. Not as expensive as electricity or fuel oil, but close.

I got mine (first one) long before it was mainstream. I remember getting shelled new crop corn from my neighbor and when he asked me what I was doing with it (he thought I was feeding my steers with it, which I was but at least half got combusted), he looked at me like I lost my mind.

Funny thing, he has one now, too. I prefer old crop (in the elevator tank) corn over new crop because old ctop will have a lower RM. I loike the RM below 10%. Burns hotter.

The one good thing is, ulike an outdoor wood boiler, there is no stack emissions or visible smoke so the envitomental police don't care, unlike outdoor boilers than now can't emit visible particulates, the only time I get any smoke is a cold start and thats minimal. I get fly ash in my cleanout T and some clinkers from the corn or pellets and thats it.

If it's really cold outside (like below zero) I get a bit of condensation that looks like smoke, but it's just water vapor coming off the cool flue pipe with the flue gas.

The unit is in the greatroom and it's a focal point. Everyone like to sit nearby and toast their feet (especially me). I have the flat screen stratigically positioned so I can sit in my Lazy Boy, watch football and toast my feet.

I do have to run a humidifier. It gets really dry in the house. I use a portable 'whole house' unit and snitch city water from work. Our well water has too much calcium in it.

My wife handles all the stove chores except cleaning. She tends it.

Accoding to the Farmers Almanac it's supposed to be another bad, very cold winter. I want to stay toasty without going bankrupt over fuel cost.


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## haybaler101 (Nov 30, 2008)

Not saying corn can't go back to $2.50 but it will not stay long, especially if we can keep the guberment out of it. Corn farmers spent a good 20 years being subsidized in the $2-2.50 range on corn with break even also in that range. Thus the market was never allowed to truly work. Any market that is allowed to work fully will stabilize long term at or near the average break even cost of production, which is about $4.50 right now. Basically, half the producers will make money and half will not. The wheels are already turning on the demand side as the price drops. ARD is going to burn corn for fuel, ethanol will become more profitable again, livestock inventories will build, and most importantly, China was buying with $6 corn, they will go nuts with $3 corn. On the supply side, $3 corn doesn't pay many bills especially on shit ground and that will find a new crop next year. As far as $20,000 land plummeting to $2000 on $4 corn, better keep dreaming on that one. I do not see land dropping more than15 to 20%. If you look through history, land has always been a sound investment, except for a few brief corrections.


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## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

There hasn't been many land auctions here lately but I did hear of 2 no sales @ $5000 north of here 60 miles that they were hopeing for $8500 and would of brought that a yr ago.Not prime farm ground but it shows a pretty serious price decline for the area.


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## ARD Farm (Jul 12, 2012)

haybaler101 said:


> Not saying corn can't go back to $2.50 but it will not stay long, especially if we can keep the guberment out of it. Corn farmers spent a good 20 years being subsidized in the $2-2.50 range on corn with break even also in that range. Thus the market was never allowed to truly work. Any market that is allowed to work fully will stabilize long term at or near the average break even cost of production, which is about $4.50 right now. Basically, half the producers will make money and half will not. The wheels are already turning on the demand side as the price drops. ARD is going to burn corn for fuel, ethanol will become more profitable again, livestock inventories will build, and most importantly, China was buying with $6 corn, they will go nuts with $3 corn. On the supply side, $3 corn doesn't pay many bills especially on shit ground and that will find a new crop next year. As far as $20,000 land plummeting to $2000 on $4 corn, better keep dreaming on that one. I do not see land dropping more than15 to 20%. If you look through history, land has always been a sound investment, except for a few brief corrections.


I despise ethanol. The only way e-producers can survive is with gummit subsidy. It's a looser all the way around.

I never had to doctor my gasoline so it would actually keep for a couple months. Now, Marine Stabil is in every jug full.

When I see a tank car train heading west through Ohio, I know it's loaded with corn liquor.

Corn exports will depend entirely on the strength of the dollar, keep in mind we aren't the only country producing grain for export.

If corn don't get to below $3.00, it's not a worry for me anyway because I can burn either corn or pellets, I guess I can burn any grain in this stove ir at least it's supposed to including pellertized switchgrass but pellets have been very stable in price per ton for a couple years now and pellets are made from the wood that lumber mills usually discard, scrap pallets and other wood thats not useable for anything so it's really a recycling thing.

I do my part to keep it out of landfills.


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## ARD Farm (Jul 12, 2012)

haybaler101 said:


> Not saying corn can't go back to $2.50 but it will not stay long, especially if we can keep the guberment out of it. Corn farmers spent a good 20 years being subsidized in the $2-2.50 range on corn with break even also in that range. Thus the market was never allowed to truly work. Any market that is allowed to work fully will stabilize long term at or near the average break even cost of production, which is about $4.50 right now. Basically, half the producers will make money and half will not. The wheels are already turning on the demand side as the price drops. ARD is going to burn corn for fuel, ethanol will become more profitable again, livestock inventories will build, and most importantly, China was buying with $6 corn, they will go nuts with $3 corn. On the supply side, $3 corn doesn't pay many bills especially on shit ground and that will find a new crop next year. As far as $20,000 land plummeting to $2000 on $4 corn, better keep dreaming on that one. I do not see land dropping more than15 to 20%. If you look through history, land has always been a sound investment, except for a few brief corrections.


I just need to there long enough to suck up 2 tank loads and I'm good to go for 2 years. I'm watching the prices like a hawk.

Global Ethanol was posted at $3.31 yeaterday.

I'm all about land but I prefer timbered land. Just bought a large tract of hardwood in Northern Michigan in the spring. Land is an investment, the Lord isn't making any new.....


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## ARD Farm (Jul 12, 2012)

Corn is at $3.25 with a basis of -30 here today. Getting there. Gets into the mid 2 dollar range, I'll be loading the tanks for feed and fuel.

Looking awfully cheap considering the input cost.


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## hillside hay (Feb 4, 2013)

2.80 is my break even point so letshope it stays above that. With the last couple wet years a lot of my bottom ground I'll be knocking down ruts and redoing drainage. That means I'll be mostly row crop for the next couple years regardless of price. Some ground is coming up for its Sabbath anyway.


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## ARD Farm (Jul 12, 2012)

Don't know what break even is for my neighbors (I don't row crop), but I suspect it's at least that or higher. I know imputs were high this year.

Tuesday will tell the tale or at least mark the trending.. I see the basis is hanging around -30. with local E producers (Global Ethanol) closing at just above 3.00


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## ARD Farm (Jul 12, 2012)

A little up date here...

Enter your zip code Michigan Ag Commodities - Blissfield, MI Commodity Price Basis Date Corn 2.88 -0.35 _10/2/2014_ Soybeans 8.98 -0.27 _10/2/2014_ Wheat (SRW) 4.88 -0.25 _10/2/2014_

Global Ethanol - Riga, MI Commodity Price Basis Date *Corn 2.63 -0.60 *_10/2/2014_

John Marion Inc - Britton, MI Commodity Price Basis Date New-Crop Corn 3.02 -0.21 _10/2/2014_ Soybeans 8.95 -0.30 _10/2/2014_ Wheat (SRW) 4.70 -0.13 _10/2/2014_ New-Crop Wheat (SRW) 4.83 -0.30 _10/2/2014_

John Marion Inc - Dundee, MI Commodity Price Basis Date Corn 3.02 -0.21 _10/2/2014_ Soybeans 8.95 -0.30 _10/2/2014_ Wheat (SRW) 4.70 -0.13 _10/2/2014_ New-Crop Wheat (SRW) 4.83 -0.30 _10/2/2014_

ADM - Ottawa Lake, MI Commodity Price Basis Date Corn 2.99 -0.24 _10/2/2014_ Soybeans 9.05 -0.20 _10/2/2014_

Michigan Ag Commodities - Jasper, MI Commodity Price Basis Date Corn 2.83 -0.40 _10/2/2014_ Soybeans 8.88 -0.37 _10/2/2014_ Wheat (SRW) 4.88 -0.25 _10/2/2014_

Andersons Grain - Metamora, OH Commodity Price Basis Date Corn 2.88 -0.35 _10/2/2014_ Soybeans 8.84 -0.41 _10/2/2014_ Wheat (SRW) 4.87 -0.26 _10/2/2014_

John Marion Inc - Saline, MI Commodity Price Basis Date Corn 2.97 -0.26 _10/2/2014_ Soybeans 8.90 -0.35 _10/2/2014_ Wheat (SRW) 4.65 -0.18 _10/2/2014_ New-Crop Wheat (SRW) 4.78 -0.35 _10/2/2014_

Andersons Grain - Toledo, OH Commodity Price Basis Date Corn 3.08 -0.15 _10/2/2014_ Soybeans 9.09 -0.16 _10/2/2014_ Wheat (SRW) 4.95 -0.18 _10/2/2014_

ADM - Toledo, OH Commodity Price Basis Date Corn 3.23 0.00 _10/2/2014_ Soybeans 9.16 -0.09 _10/2/2014_

Smart money will be tank it (after dryer charges) if, you can find storage and sit on it until after the 1'st of the year. Beans are holding their own, Wheat is largely unchanged.

Think I'm going to grab 600 or so in the next couple weeks for the corn burner.

Keep in mind that none has been taken off...yet. Beans yes (a bit).

GLE contract producers are taking it in the pooper big time......

I deal with John Marion, Britton, Michigan


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## haybaler101 (Nov 30, 2008)

The low corn price situation is already fixing itself and most people don't even realize it. A huge amount of crop is still in the field and the nice wet shitty weather is making the crop smaller by the day. Also, this beautiful harvest weather across the corn belt is already dinging next years crop. You can't grow an above trend line crop if fields started at rutted and compacted from the year before.


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## IHCman (Aug 27, 2011)

Here in ND the corn choppers are busier than usual. With the low price on corn, anyone with cattle is chopping at least some instead of combining it. Why dry it and store it when you can chop it and feed it. Makes me wonder how many bu. that will take off the market.


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## eastsidehayguy (Aug 12, 2013)

2014 corn crop marketing was not nearly as scary as what 2015 is looking like. With a little marketing strategy a guy should have been able to lock Mid to high $4 mark. We picke up a nice basis to ethonal plant of another 40 cents sending it across the bridge.


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