# 2017 Hay Outlook.



## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

AgWeb.

Regards, Mike

http://www.agweb.com/article/2017-outlook-hay-prices-rely-on-basic-economics-naa-anna-lisa-laca/


----------



## Dan_GA (Dec 29, 2015)

I think Ms. Anna-Lisa Laca needs to come down to Georgia and re-visit her report. I know some neighbors that sold a lot more cattle at cheaper prices than they ever would have before, because they had already fed their winter supply of hay and couldn't get their hands on anymore. We had a bad drought and a lot of people ended up losing crops to army worms. Rained yesterday and day before for the first time in about 9 weeks, and didn't have much rain prior to that except for a few small pop up thunderstorms. Could get hay brought down from NC for $100 a roll with transportation.


----------



## BWfarms (Aug 3, 2015)

Hmm $100 a roll? I'll sell everything I have!!


----------



## Teslan (Aug 20, 2011)

Dan_GA said:


> I think Ms. Anna-Lisa Laca needs to come down to Georgia and re-visit her report. I know some neighbors that sold a lot more cattle at cheaper prices than they ever would have before, because they had already fed their winter supply of hay and couldn't get their hands on anymore. We had a bad drought and a lot of people ended up losing crops to army worms. Rained yesterday and day before for the first time in about 9 weeks, and didn't have much rain prior to that except for a few small pop up thunderstorms. Could get hay brought down from NC for $100 a roll with transportation.


If you don't have a giant dairy or if you aren't a huge alfalfa farmer that sells just to giant dairies or export markets this article like most other hay market articles doesn't apply fully.


----------



## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

I think the big thing to be taken from the article was that there is a tremendous supply of hay in most places except where there is severe drought....like the Southeast and California. So that is suppressing the prices in many areas like the Mid-west and Northeast.

The other thing I took from this article is that I would surely like to have a hay storage building similar to the one in the article.....that is one nice building. 

Regards, Mike


----------



## Dan_GA (Dec 29, 2015)

Vol said:


> The other thing I took from this article is that I would surely like to have a hay storage building similar to the one in the article.....that is one nice building.
> 
> Regards, Mike


Indeed! I guess I'm just chewing sour grapes over our drought. Didn't mean to come off as a douche... lol.


----------



## Apm1026 (Feb 11, 2012)

Dan I hear ya, but in defense of the article, hay markets are local due to high freight/volume/ valve prop I have sold all my hay this season and have turned away calls for weeks. This drought has been killer, my hay is all irrigated and the last cutting was made with 100% irrigation . If she was writing it based on the SE market it would be different. I have been on I 75 this week and many loads of hay have been heading north out of FL.


----------



## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

Dan_GA said:


> Indeed! I guess I'm just chewing sour grapes over our drought. Didn't mean to come off as a douche... lol.


I didn't take it as such Dan. 

Regards, Mike


----------



## Dan_GA (Dec 29, 2015)

Apm1026 said:


> Dan I hear ya, but in defense of the article, hay markets are local due to high freight/volume/ valve prop I have sold all my hay this season and have turned away calls for weeks. This drought has been killer, my hay is all irrigated and the last cutting was made with 100% irrigation . If she was writing it based on the SE market it would be different. I have been on I 75 this week and many loads of hay have been heading north out of FL.


Yeah a neighbor of mine just got a load of peanut hay from southern GA trucked up for $70 a bale a few weeks ago.


----------



## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

Dan_GA said:


> Yeah a neighbor of mine just got a load of peanut hay from southern GA trucked up for $70 a bale a few weeks ago.


I hear that is some really good stuff. I would like to small square some one of these days. I am sure I could sell it here. Anything legume sells here.

Regards, Mike


----------



## Ray 54 (Aug 2, 2014)

I cannot see any hay shortage in California currently. Maybe next year for premium dairy and horse alfalfa ,if the drought gets any worse. Range land in general did fair last year to normal, 3 years ago was the worst so cow numbers are down to what we can keep in a poor year. Dairy has many problems out here and is not expanding. Horse people we all know are horse people.


----------



## Apm1026 (Feb 11, 2012)

Vol, that peanut hay for $70/roll is most likely not periennial peanut which is grown for hay and forage, but left over peanut vines from harvest. It's better than nothing but the quality is low due to all the sand that gets rolled up in the bales and the intestinal challenges that brings when the cows eat it. $ 70 is double the average price in most yeasts, this is not a most year down here in the SE desert.


----------



## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

Apm1026 said:


> Vol, that peanut hay for $70/roll is most likely not periennial peanut which is grown for hay and forage, but left over peanut vines from harvest. It's better than nothing but the quality is low due to all the sand that gets rolled up in the bales and the intestinal challenges that brings when the cows eat it. $ 70 is double the average price in most yeasts, this is not a most year down here in the SE desert.


Yeah, I am thinking perennial peanut....we had a story on here about it last spring. Been a desert here until last Thursday...we got 3" and broke the stranglehold.

Regards, Mike


----------



## FarmerCline (Oct 12, 2011)

Vol said:


> I hear that is some really good stuff. I would like to small square some one of these days. I am sure I could sell it here. Anything legume sells here.
> 
> Regards, Mike


 Mike, I brought a little bit of perennial peanut back from from south Georgia last winter. Really good stuff and thought It would go over well but it didn't.....I didn't have much luck at all selling it. I think part of it might have been the fact by the time I figured in the freight I had to sell it for a dollar more than I'm selling alfalfa. Gave a few bales away to several good customers and they said while the horses ate it well all things being equal they would rather feed alfalfa.


----------



## endrow (Dec 15, 2011)

If you live in an area that is super dry and you're thinking you might be short or your thinking maybe you could sell a bunch now would be the time to buy it in. Some guys think the only time hay sells is when there snow on the ground but lately here early spring has been the times of the highest hay prices. In our area this year the guy that waited till the 1st of July to make first cutting lost big time but I think for most part the the bulk of the farmers their first and second cuttings were normal. In this area most of the farmers got at least 70% of their normal hay crop...... I think waiting until spring to try to buy it in will be bad news


----------



## bunkhouse (Aug 10, 2013)

Dan from Georgia , if you arrange transport , you can have my 5 X 6 orchard grass rounds for $20 each. 25 rounds left 1st and 2nd cutting

Regards

John


----------



## somedevildawg (Jun 20, 2011)

BWfarms said:


> Hmm $100 a roll? I'll sell everything I have!!


Better think again, that's delivered.......the math don't work out too good, unless it's just a short jaunt, truckers like it tho.

But furthermore, it brings up an interesting delimma and one worth serious pondering.....
I couldn't make all the hay I normally could because of aforementioned drought, I was more fortunate than others farther west and north, but I managed to have a decent crop. At this point in the hay season my barns are usually full with little hay being sold until Jan/feb/mar/apr......my barns are at less than half and it's not even the middle of December. The demand has been unbelievable as we are probably closest to the drought affected area being only 25 miles from the impacted drought areas. I get at least three calls a day from folk up north needing hay. So do I sell or not......I have to maintain adequate inventories for my existing customers, that will use more hay this year due to the drought, so that they do not run out. I have delivered quite a bit of hay to north Georgia but when I get calls from there now, I just blow them out with some high price quotes so I don't have to sell my hay.......interesting for sure, never seen it quite like this, wish now I had run a surplus from last year.....don't like to do that, in this case it would have been prudent and profitable. Without a doubt tho, I have to maintain my customer base that will buy hay next year just like they did for the 3,4,5 yrs prior, drought be damned......one has to remember that the hay business is not built overnite, relationships that took years to nurture can be lost forever......


----------



## r82230 (Mar 1, 2016)

somedevildawg said:


> So do I sell or not......I have to maintain adequate inventories for my existing customers, that will use more hay this year due to the drought, so that they do not run out.


I would contact / ask my existing customers how much they are willing to commit to for the season (and why I am asking). Then sell the rest ASAP, nothing wrong with a bare barn, next year in my eyes (and cash in hand). You would be honest and taking care of your existing customers first.

2 pennies today.

Larry


----------



## somedevildawg (Jun 20, 2011)

I have done exactly that Larry....I talked to all of them first hand and let them know the hay situation and have given them ample opportunity to pre-purchase.


----------



## luke strawwalker (Jul 31, 2014)

Yeah... ain't NO WAY I'd be sitting on hay worth plenty of $$$ because folks really need it without a FIRM COMMITMENT (I'd want cash-in-hand get it when you want it but prepaid at the going rate) from these "longtime customers" and then I'd be selling the rest... and let them know that they better be PLANNING AHEAD THEMSELVES and MAKE SURE that what they're having you "hold for them" is actually what they'll need, because there probably won't be any more to be had later...

It's a business, and IMHO a guy can't afford to sit around in a "bull market" HOPING that the "usual customers" get their crap together and will want what they did last year and will pay the going rates... (whatever that is in your area-- if the folks upcountry are willing to pay more, well, the locals would have to be paying more as well or I'd send it all up there... business is business...)

Later! OL J R


----------



## endrow (Dec 15, 2011)

My son tried that last year with straw. Most of our customers said just go ahead and sell it all off the field to the bto we will buy it somewhere else. Now we have almost 200 Acres of small grains planted trying to find buyers for strong for next year price went South plenty of straw around I believe we wished we'd hung on to our straw customers but I'm not sure like you said you gotta move in a bull market nothing last long at all and AG


----------



## endrow (Dec 15, 2011)

Also IMO and what I have learned over the years prices in these markets that go waaay too high! Are never ever ever, any good, you'll pay it all back


----------



## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

Long term customers are my bread and butter,no way would I let them hanging even if I could get more shipping the hay all out to a higher priced area.I will ship any extra hay I have.I know a guy that shipped everything out one yr and left his customers hanging,he no longer has those customers and is sitting on a shit ton of carry over hay now.A few thousand ton!The drought area he shipped to got rain the next yr so they don't need the hay either.

A short term gain can turn into a long term loss.

And on the flip side there will always be some that forget you even though you held hay for them and drop you for $5 a ton for someone else.


----------



## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

I always extend to my "regulars" a courtesy call....it reassures them and me too. I will never sell them out for a few dollars. I have gotten dropped by a couple of them for cheaper hay, but they usually end up coming back sooner or later. Once they drop me and they call back, I quote them maximum price....and I don't "hold" any hay for them as I would before. It will work both ways.

I like my regulars for the most part....but they are just people and things can change in a hurry....especially with the horse women. With individuals I tell them that I have a 100 bale minimum and if that is more than they can feed to get a friend or a neighbor to go in with them on a load. That saves a lot of phone calls about hay. I have not advertised hay for sale in about 7 years.

My largest customers are commercial accounts in the area....mainly co operatives....and I like dealing with them best of all.

Regards, Mike


----------



## stack em up (Mar 7, 2013)

I only have 2 dairies I sell to. They take everything I have, and always pay in decent time. I realize cash is short sometimes and I keep a tab. Don't charge them interest and they never bitch about quality. I wouldn't trade them for the world. When I am short in hay, I tell them but they already know that cuz I tell them mid-fall how much hay I have, and they plan according how to make up the difference.


----------



## PaMike (Dec 7, 2013)

I had some regular hay customers, but that list is dwindling. All were/are hobby guys. In this area there are almost no "farmettes" anymore. Most got subdivided and built on. It there are some around they sell for big money...like 30-50k per acre.. The hobby guy just isnt around anymore. Have a regular customer that has sheep. He moves from rented barn to rented barn. He is down to 15 head now...sounded rather discouraged the last time he was here...I image in will throw in the towel soon...Still some demand for alfalfa with the dairies but it seams grass hay demand just isn't there anymore...


----------



## hillside hay (Feb 4, 2013)

I'm rotating out of a lot of ground. Our dryer than the last 10 years weather resulted in a bumper crop with stacks outside under tarps. Horsey folk going to rounds as well. Costs about 1.50 a bale to move to the nearest higher priced area for a net loss of .50 per bale over barn pickup. Looks like grain sorghum and corn next year


----------



## endrow (Dec 15, 2011)

With the lower hay prices here I was wondering if some of The Hay Ground might not be rotated back to corn as well. Wheat d prices are very depressed . It's a hard call to figure out which crop to plant this spring.


----------

