# Beef Peak?



## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

From USDA.

Regards, Mike

http://www.agweb.com/article/usda_cattle_market_topping_out_NAA_Jo_Windmann/


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## Waterway64 (Dec 2, 2011)

They keep trying to talk down beef prices but producers and feeders need to remain market savey. With no cure for the swine virus that's killing so many feeder pigs and time needed to increase the beef herd I expect short term stability. Add to this opening the Ecuadoren market and soon to have expanded pacific rim markets, beef and pork markets may never be quite the same as we have known them in the past. Mel


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## Tim/South (Dec 12, 2011)

Waterway64 said:


> They keep trying to talk down beef prices but producers and feeders need to remain market savey. With no cure for the swine virus that's killing so many feeder pigs and time needed to increase the beef herd I expect short term stability. Add to this opening the Ecuadoren market and soon to have expanded pacific rim markets, beef and pork markets may never be quite the same as we have known them in the past. Mel


I agree.

I can not see cattle numbers ever returning to where they were in their hay day. Many farms and ranches liquidated. Some because of drought, some because of the high prices the low numbers created. Not many young people willing or able to step in the boots of the aging- retiring cattle farmer.


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## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

I do think Beef will eventually make a comeback.....and I think this is a excellent time to expand with registered cattle. I certainly can be wrong, but it is a feeling that I have with all things considered.

Regards, Mike


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## Tim/South (Dec 12, 2011)

With cattle prices being what they are it is hard for me to see much growth in the national herd size. I kept seven nice heifers. That is hard to do when you can get $900 for them at the sale.

Cull cows in good condition are $1.00 lb. or better.

I feel the prices will remain high for a while so I kept some heifers. Because prices are high I also sold some nice heifers.

Two weeks ago our local sale barn sold 100 momma cows from a liquidation sale. Nice pairs brought $2,500. Some said that was cheap compared to other areas. I can not see much profit in a $2,500 cow. I always try not to pay more than a cow can return in two years. If she has a nice calf by her side then she will pay for herself in two more years if prices remain stable.

Alabama is not a major player in the cattle industry. A recent survey said our state herd had grown in average size. What they did not cover is how many less cattle farms we have now compared to two years ago.

Now is a great time to own cattle. I am not sure it is a good time to go into cattle.


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## Waterway64 (Dec 2, 2011)

Tim you bring up some good points. Who is going to expand? Yes some producers down in numbers presently. However some areas continue in drought and now California stockman are struggling to save what they have. And if a producer has sold his cattle, plowed up pasture and hay ground, and invested heavily in row crop equipment what are the chances he will go back into livestock? Another factor is how fast agribusiness will demand more of this new found profit. Mel


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## Tim/South (Dec 12, 2011)

Prices were not this high when the drought hit and owners began to sell. It is hard to sell cheap and buy high.

In reading online and in cattle magazines, many lost all their grass the second year of the drought. Reseeding and affording sky high prices is a tough row to hoe.

I still see some of the old gents who have sold their herds. They come to the sale, sit and smile and enjoy the fellowship. I wish there was a movement to replace their spot at the table. I just do not see it.

In areas of more cattle, larger farms and ranches, the family and siblings will probably carry on. Not here with the small 50 head or less farms.


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## Dill (Nov 5, 2010)

Also milk price is up quite a bit from last year. So less cull cows headed to burger. When milk prices are down it makes sense to take advantage of high beef price.


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