# Will Hay be the Next Gold?



## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

This commodity broker poses the question and gives some thoughts and facts.

Regards, Mike

http://www.agweb.com..._the_next_gold/


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## IAhaymakr (Jun 4, 2008)

It's great to see that the export market is thriving, especially for producers along the coast. For the rest of us, I believe that we are near to the start of a slow decline in prices no matter what the supply may be. Daries have the ability to build rations around a wide variety of ingredients and will do so in order to stay profitable. Alfalfa may be the best choice for their cows, but if it isn't cost effective they will all but eliminate it. Some dairies are now experimenting with longer cut corn silage (shreadlage) to maintain effective fiber in the rumen and in doing so can almost completely cut hay out of the ration. I am not trying to paint a doomsday picture here for hay producers, just saying there is a limit to the upside of hay market, and I think we may be near the top.


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## downtownjr (Apr 8, 2008)

You know I was thinking the same thing when reading. Regardless of cattle type(dairy/beef) and even goats, people in the area are looking at alternatives. Horse are selling everywhere, there are more horse ads on craigslist than hay ads. Only those with money appear to be keeping. The stable I do some work for has seen about a quarter of the horses sold by the owner.

Folks are uneasy about their personal economic future and the hay prices are hurting the pocketbook. 2013 will be an interesting year. If the drought continues in the western half of the US and returns to the "I" states and Ohio, all bets are off where livestock will figure in.

I know of I very large dairy that the nutritionist I spoke to a few weeks ago believes that the "shreadlage" IAHaymaker mentioned is the way to go...believes he can cut cost 15% over current alfalfa costs.

By the way until that conversation I had never heard the term until he mentioned it...did a university come up with that idea? IAHaymaker is only the second time I have heard the term.

What are you guys hearing and what do you think?...


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## Mike120 (May 4, 2009)

In one of their droughts a few years back the Aussies started using hydroponics to grow forage. I looked into it during our '11 dry spell, but quit when I got my barn filled with imported hay. It's not reasonable for a large herd, but I probably could have made it work for 20-25 horses just for what I spent on shipping bales from WY to Texas. Since then I've seen a number of ads for the systems, but it would be more labor intensive and I'd have to explain it to the borders....We all know how easy it is to explain forage quality to horsey folk.


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## mlappin (Jun 25, 2009)

Not to be a pessimist, but even if hay becomes the new gold it will be short lived. Farmers have a strong history of producing themselves right out of profitability. About the time corn or beans drop, producers that see high hay prices will either plant more, or some will even jump in and start producing forage again or for the first time.

This is not a bad thing as long as you don't have all your eggs in one basket. It's called a free market, something that Washington knows nothing about.

Last time we seen hay prices near as high as they are now in our area, a few years after that I'd haul a 3 or 4 ton load in to an auction and make just enough to fill both gas tanks on the old hay truck and might have enough left to splurge on a Big mac at McNasties.


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## Erock813 (Jun 3, 2008)

The rush for old hay equipment is already on in my area. All these horse people are already complaining about hay prices for next year and think they can do it themselves cheaper. Think they would've learned this a few years back when they tried it then. But the land is not there, all row crops now. Most of our older farmers have all went with row crops.


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## enos (Dec 6, 2009)

All the junk that the people who were born and raised with and learned how to nurse it along till we bought new stuff?. That's what they are gonna learn how to hay with? Get some pictures......this ought to be good! We can't make up stuff this good!!!!!!!!


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## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

The best part is that some of these "DIY" people are going to find out what sweat equity really means.....just think...weeds, fertilizer, rain, humidity, dust, wind, and then more unpredicted rain and finally breakdowns. Maybe this will change their political views....nah....that requires reasoning.

Regards, Mike


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## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

It could be the newest Reality Show.









Watch the Horsey folk tryin to make hay.And not loose any body parts!!


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## mlappin (Jun 25, 2009)

Vol said:


> The best part is that some of these "DIY" people are going to find out what sweat equity really means.....just think...weeds, fertilizer, rain, humidity, dust, wind, and then more unpredicted rain and finally breakdowns. Maybe this will change their political views....nah....that requires reasoning.
> 
> Regards, Mike


I already have a guy that tried making his own, exactly as you'd imagine as well. Tired old equipment, unpredictable weather and trying to work 40 hours a week selling insurance. He told me it took him two years to figure it out, but he was better off buying hay and the time spent making hay is much better used selling insurance.


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## Fowllife (Sep 10, 2010)

Wow, you guys are being pretty hard on us small guys. Yeah, I run old wore out junk equipment, but you do what you have to do. Not all of use the resources or land base to have nice new equipment. We own all the land that we run and the number just dont work to have new equipment. It is also next to impossible to find someone to custom bale in my area unless you have nice big flat fields.I lost enough money from quality waiting on my custom guy in one year to praticaly pay for my junk equipment.

It's a lot easier & cheaper to get started farming doing hay. Noboby in my area does much custom work. Most of the smaller guys have full time jobs & dont have to time for more work. The big guys just dont want to the work.

But, I also don't have horses. I want to make hay and farm, not try to save a few bucks.We are hoping livestock & hay will give us a way to build land base & get better equipment.

Sorry for the short rant. I agree though, most horsey people (but not all) are clueless and think this hay making is easy.


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## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

Fowllife said:


> Wow, you guys are being pretty hard on us small guys.


Nahhh...we are referencing Erocks post about the horse people gonna start raising hay because we charge too much.....we're just kinda sittin' back grinnin' because we know what a "Nutcracker's Ball" it can be and will be growing their own.









Regards, Mike


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## Teslan (Aug 20, 2011)

It's even more amusing to me here in Colorado when hay buyers say they will grow their own. In addition to not knowing anything about hay machinery they forget something more important then that around here. The need to irrigate. They think they can rent 40 acres of dryland and magically grow hay.


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## Waterway64 (Dec 2, 2011)

Teslan are you getting any snow pack for irrigation this winter? Mel


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## endrow (Dec 15, 2011)

If hay is the next gold i will not worry about a smaller operators buying wore out equipment That will be the least of my worries. , I will worry about the guy on the other side of the county {everyone knows a guy like this} He is a good farmer with no shortage of resouces . if he smells $400.00 hay- he will go out and buy 3 new big balers, 6 more tractors , 2- 30 foot mowers, more rakes tedders and hay trucks than you could imagine . He will travell 100 miles or more to take your rented land . He will offer twice as much cash for land rent on hay ground than anyone could begin to afford , He has many good employes that can and will get the hay made .. I promise you if hay does big big money this will happen and it will not be at all amusing ,, This is why when I dream of 400 to 500 dollar hay I stop and think maybe it would not be the best thing for me after all


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## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

_Hay price has backed up here about $50 a ton off the high._

_Milk price has backed up here about $3.00 a cwt._

_The way it is HERE._


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## Joe Howard (Jun 6, 2011)

Fowllife said:


> Wow, you guys are being pretty hard on us small guys. Yeah, I run old wore out junk equipment, but you do what you have to do. Not all of use the resources or land base to have nice new equipment. We own all the land that we run and the number just dont work to have new equipment. It is also next to impossible to find someone to custom bale in my area unless you have nice big flat fields.I lost enough money from quality waiting on my custom guy in one year to praticaly pay for my junk equipment.
> 
> It's a lot easier & cheaper to get started farming doing hay. Noboby in my area does much custom work. Most of the smaller guys have full time jobs & dont have to time for more work. The big guys just dont want to the work.
> 
> ...


Have to throw this one in there.......(no pun intended) Sold a horse to a lady from Maine. She came down the first time to ride her and I was cleaning out the small square baler out front. Had a bale sitting out by it, she comes up, scratches her head and asks-"My what in the world is that thing?" Thought I was gonna loose it....... Got horses myself, and I know what it takes to get that bale out of the baler..... and it's true that a lot of horse people have no idea.....


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## somedevildawg (Jun 20, 2011)

I settle for it being the next scrap metal.........


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## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

endrow said:


> If hay is the next gold i will not worry about a smaller operators buying wore out equipment That will be the least of my worries. , I will worry about the guy on the other side of the county {everyone knows a guy like this} He is a good farmer with no shortage of resouces . if he smells $400.00 hay- he will go out and buy 3 new big balers, 6 more tractors , 2- 30 foot mowers, more rakes tedders and hay trucks than you could imagine . He will travell 100 miles or more to take your rented land . He will offer twice as much cash for land rent on hay ground than anyone could begin to afford , He has many good employes that can and will get the hay made .. I promise you if hay does big big money this will happen and it will not be at all amusing ,, This is why when I dream of 400 to 500 dollar hay I stop and think maybe it would not be the best thing for me after all


I know what your saying but I doubt seriously that will happen. Big time cropping is one thing, but big time haying is a entirely different beast. Large scale haying is not something you can jump in at a whim. Much, much, much, more equipment costs, very labor intensive, and the window of harvest opportunity is miniscule compared to cropping. And labor....well lets just say that trying to operate in a 100 square mile area would be a freakin' nightmare for anyone trying to large scale hay.

I say bring on the high dollar hay....it will be short-lived at best because people will scale back hay purchases eventually just like people scaled back their gas purchases/driving habits since '08.

We are living the good ol' days as far as agriculture right now....actually, we are on the down hill side now looking down the slope so folks had better prepare....JMO.

Regards, Mike


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## Fowllife (Sep 10, 2010)

Vol said:


> I know what your saying but I doubt seriously that will happen. Big time cropping is one thing, but big time haying is a entirely different beast. Large scale haying is not something you can jump in at a whim. Much, much, much, more equipment costs, very labor intensive, and the window of harvest opportunity is miniscule compared to cropping. And labor....well lets just say that trying to operate in a 100 square mile area would be a freakin' nightmare for anyone trying to large scale hay.
> 
> I say bring on the high dollar hay....it will be short-lived at best because people will scale back hay purchases eventually just like people scaled back their gas purchases/driving habits since '08.
> 
> ...


I agree with Mike here. The big row crop guys don't want the head ache and labor of making hay. When they can contract out all there grain and insure it to lock in a profit there is not really an upside for them to gamble on hay prices staying high. There may be a couple of small fields put into hay here and there, but nothing major.

I think that price of hay will either hold or increase a little before spring. I think first cutting will be close to current prices. If we get good rain the price will drop. but not a;; the way back to were they were. If we don't get rain they will stay close to current levels.


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## iowahayaa (Feb 3, 2013)

Was in Denison ia the first of January premium 3x3 big squares went for 200 a bale so at 750 lbs its like 550 a ton and its been at that price since October I got 160 for 1st cutting 85% grass big squares It went to 235 last weekend but a guy bought all of the big sqres 50 or so of them


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## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

That's good to hear....hopefully the crop sector will continue being strong which will strengthen the forage sector and it will be a good situation for both producers.









Regards, Mike


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