# Wishy Washy Weatherman



## OneManShow (Mar 17, 2009)

Four days ago, all our local weather folks proclaimed in the west a strong high pressure ridge would extend up into SE Alaska-at least through Jun 23rd-maybe through the end of the month-good news. Normally, these folks are so wishy washy, that i don't pay much attention- (partly cloudy with a chance of rain or partly sunny with a chance of showers etc)but when all them have the stones to predict two weeks of nice weather, I took notice,and mowed 25 acres of real nice hay. Next day the forecast changed and I stopped mowing. Today it's 56 degrees, have had two good showers this morning. At least I had sense enough to rake everything into tight windrows yesterday afternoon. Hope it will be green in the bale. . .


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## nosliw (Feb 8, 2010)

The weatherman is the only person that can be wrong more than 1/2 the time and still get a paycheck.

It's "partly sunny with a 50% chance of showers" here today.

and tomorrow.

and probably all week.


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## haybaler101 (Nov 30, 2008)

nosliw said:


> The weatherman is the only person that can be wrong more than 1/2 the time and still get a paycheck.
> 
> It's "partly sunny with a 50% chance of showers" here today.
> 
> ...


yeah and we pay more attention to him, even though he is wrong repeatedly, than we do the preacher on Sunday morning.


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## hay hauler (Feb 6, 2010)

Same type of thing happend in central oregon. Not looking to good...


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## OneManShow (Mar 17, 2009)

Yep- Pretty nasty spring. Wet in the west. Flooding and tornados in the midwest. So far not a real good hay season. Hopefully it'll turn around pretty quick, otherwise we're going to have to put up quite a bit of haylage, or some really ripe dry hay.


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## enos (Dec 6, 2009)

Just north of you, Never cut hay until jet stream goes up into alaska, High presure for at least 5 days and usually a good drying wind. Find a weather service that shows the jet stream pattern and you rarely can lose.


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## rjmoses (Apr 4, 2010)

I've found weather.com 10 day to be pretty reliable out to about 6-7 days. Weather.com also has maps showing high pressure area and other details. I also use the NOAA 7 day forecast.

Here's some links I use (Put in your own zip code):

62036 Weather Forecast and Conditions

7-Day Forecast for Latitude 38.92°N and Longitude 90.62°W (Elev. 502 ft)

weather.com - Map Room - Satellite Map, Weather Map, Doppler Radar US: Current Weather

Ralph


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## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

The last couple weeks they have predicted 30% 3-5 days out than when it starts raining on that day they raise it to 80%.Geeze look out the window if it's raining I would call that 100%.









30% chance of rain = rain

60% chance it doesn't


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## mlappin (Jun 25, 2009)

About the same here, its been one of those patterns that even a 30% chance will get just wet enough hay won't dry. We at least don't have any ponding, but it's also just wet enough that no way can we get any side dressing done. We use our 4-175 White with a 750 gallon tank on the back over the rear axle for spraying, and even then, I have a feeling a person is gonna want to pick and choose for a few days on which fields they attempt to spray.


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## OneManShow (Mar 17, 2009)

Enos-do you know of a weather service that offers a jetstream forecast? I use a bunch of free stuff for weather, Accuweather.com, Intellicast.com., weather underground, a local ag weather forecaster, but none of these share the jet stream forecast-or if they do, I haven't found where they show it. I really do not want to pay for a detailed forecast- that may or may not be any better than the forecast info I can get for free.


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## mlappin (Jun 25, 2009)

New forecast in, still looks liek I have till late Friday afternoon to get the stuff made I mowed this AM, problem is then after that, looks like we are right back to having a chance of rain every single day till Next Friday.









Almost wished I'd made hay instead of getting the last of the rowcrops in towards the end of May.


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## Haymike56 (May 3, 2010)

We have the same thing going on just south of Chicago. Rain one day then the sun comes out and make you feel good about cutting and then the next afternoon rain. Some guys around here are trying to guess which days will be good but I haven't seen any get it right. I have about 80 acres left to do first cutting and am having trouble keeping the cutter in the barn but the forcast looks bad all of next week.


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## rjmoses (Apr 4, 2010)

Just mowed 15 acres today. Ground was wet, but......you gotta do what you gotta do. This alfalfa was two weeks past ready. I'm figuring that I can get dry and bales (big rounds) by Saturday. Weather.com 10 day calls for 0-10% ALL of next week!!!!! I'll believe it 10 days from now!

BTW, the atmospheric pressure is the highest right now since May 16th!


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## enos (Dec 6, 2009)

One Man Show
Current Weather - The Weather Network
In Canada on TV the weather network shows it 6 min and 36 min past the hour. Pretty reliable in our local as far as showing what the high pressure ridge will do if you know how it effects your area. We just sit and wait for it, I don't have to eat the hay. 30% chance of showers means go get your rain gear.


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## Jersey Jim (Jun 3, 2010)

OneManShow said:


> Enos-do you know of a weather service that offers a jetstream forecast? I use a bunch of free stuff for weather, Accuweather.com, Intellicast.com., weather underground, a local ag weather forecaster, but none of these share the jet stream forecast-or if they do, I haven't found where they show it. I really do not want to pay for a detailed forecast- that may or may not be any better than the forecast info I can get for free.


You can go to this site here for free but it might take a little interpretation because it is designed for pilots:

ADDS - Winds/Temps

On the top-right portion of the map select "wind streamlines." On the top left you have to choose an elevation for the winds. I would recommend FL 300 which is 30,000' (by the way, FL stands for "flight level"). The window in the middle is for the time period of the forecast; the map should default to the current one but you can select a different time period. The time is UTC or "Universal Time Coordinated." The conversion to local time is to subtract 4 hours for EDT this time of year or 5 hours for EST during the winter. You should be able to adjust for Central/Mountain/Pacific time zones from there. Wind speed is in knots which is 15% higher than mph (100 mph= 115 knots).

I probably missed something in my explanation, so let me know what it is and I will do my best.

I'll look around some more and see if I can find other jetstream maps.
Best,
Jim


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## rjmoses (Apr 4, 2010)

OK! I think I've got this weather thing figured out!

Cutting stage.........Forecasted chance.......Actually happens
Thinking about it...............0%.........................0%
Thinking about it..............50%....................... 0%
Thinking about it............100%....................... 0%

Mowing.............................0%....................... 0%
Mowing...........................50%........................0%
Mowing.........................100%........................0%

Hay down.........................0%.....................100% Showers enough to keep hay wet
Hay down........................50%.....................100% 1" or more
Hay down......................100%.....................100% 2" or more

Hay baled and put in..........0%.........................0%
ditch because it was.........50%........................0% and drought
bad!...............................100%........................0% and extended drought

Mowed 15ac yesterday with a 0-20% chance over next 4 days; raining this morning!

Ralph


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## OneManShow (Mar 17, 2009)

enos said:


> One Man Show
> Current Weather - The Weather Network
> In Canada on TV the weather network shows it 6 min and 36 min past the hour. Pretty reliable in our local as far as showing what the high pressure ridge will do if you know how it effects your area. We just sit and wait for it, I don't have to eat the hay. 30% chance of showers means go get your rain gear.


Thanks for the Website- We do not get Canadian TV broadcast here-except the Red Green Show


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## OneManShow (Mar 17, 2009)

Jersey Jim said:


> You can go to this site here for free but it might take a little interpretation because it is designed for pilots:
> 
> [I probably missed something in my explanation, so let me know what it is and I will do my best.
> 
> ...


Thanks- I wandered all over the NOAA website and missed this section. Figures though, the federal gov doesn't make anything easy. 96 hour jet stream forecast is more than I've found elsewhere. Now that I've looked at the next 4 days, does any one know how to un-mow a field?


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## kfarm_EC_IL (Aug 5, 2008)

I remember last year I left a wagon in the field full 12 mile away. NO CHANCE of RAIN expected! For some reason I woke up that money earlier than usual about quarter till 4. checked the weather for the day and it showed a shower already within 20 miles. Got the wagon in just as it started raining. The weather forcast didn't even show 10% chance of rain.

That was last year haven't really had the opportuity to even get a bale wet...HAHAHA At least we can still laugh about it. Well so far we put the disk mower in the fence row yesterday permantly broke the bar for the third time. Fun fun
Mark


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## hay wilson in TX (Jan 28, 2009)

We seem to forget that all the media weather forecasters are in the entertainment business. If we learn something from them, that is a bonus.

We are all victims of sampling errors. The few observation locations are perfectly capable of missing the big picture, and weather is a world wide situation, with infinite variables. At it's best forecasting is a SWAG. The last times conditions were reported to be like now, it only rained 10% of the time. We forget that during those 10% of the times it rained 100%.

Yesterday the seabreeze effect brought some rain in 100 miles from the coast. Forecast 5% PoP.


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## Haymike56 (May 3, 2010)

Well we just had wed & thurs no rain and today RAIN. The upside is that the hay is maturing and when we doo get a chnce to cut it the dry down time will be less.


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## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

It's almost as bad when the wheatherman predicts rain and it doesn't.Had 70% chance and it didn't rain.I would of V-raked some hay and it would of been baled already but I listen to the @#%&* weatherman.


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## OneManShow (Mar 17, 2009)

No rain yesterday. Supposed to be nice and sunny today. If everything goes right I should be able to get the stuff I mowed 6 days ago in a bale and in the barn. More rain forecast for Saturday. Think I'll mow some more on Sunday for haylage-even though it is on the late side of good. Couldn't get on the fields much earlier anyhow, everything is too soft. May not be able to haul the haylage bales in until later this summer. Sure don't like handling those things after they're wrapped, even if the bales are all ensiled. If it keeps up like this much longer, we may not see much cash from this crop, hope we can cover our costs at least


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