# Beef Herd Expansion



## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

Been holding those heifers....

Regards, Mike

http://www.agriculture.com/news/livestock/cattle-herd-expsion-steams-ahead_3-ar47342


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## stack em up (Mar 7, 2013)

I am having a hard time believing the herd is expanding as rapidly as they are claiming. And a portion of those retained heifers are undoubtedly going to replace those broken mouth aged cows that are worth good money.

And for every 100 heifers retained, about 20 of them will never produce a calf.

But as we all know, the USDA looks at all angles when producing a report...


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## snowball (Feb 7, 2015)

i just read a piece in the Angus Beef Bulletin their outlook is for about a 4% increase over the next 5 yrs that's weather permitting no prolonged droughts anywhere. That is less than 1% per yr. Also factor in there are a number of older farmers that are selling out with these high prices, the young guys either can't afford to get in or don't want to take the work load & risk involved with a cow herd. Luckily the price of gas has gone down so the higher meat cost don't seem to be a issue ( YET ) I just don't see the cow # increasing much. Good Old Uncle Sam wants to see it different and will keep throwing false # out hope'n to slow down the price of red meat, (Heck they might even try to get Opra to run her big mouth again about MAD COW ) Long story short the damage was done in 2012 with drought & USDA is Pissed Off they can't do any damage control


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## Waterway64 (Dec 2, 2011)

Other than existing producers adding a few head I don't see a big increase either. There is no pasture available. I know people who would be interested if a place were available around here


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## Grateful11 (Apr 5, 2009)

You take mostly likely the largest cattle farm in this area, they're running a 1000 head, from what I've seen other than hired hands the youngest member of the family is probably in his early 40's. The oldest is in 70's and said the other day he thought he would retire at 70 but just wasn't ready to stop. They may have some younger family members to take over but I haven't seen them. If you go to the sale barns around here, big and small, the guys going and coming are getting older and older, we're just not seeing any young folks. Our son is 25 and probably one of the youngest around here running cattle. He has a college degree with a dual major and graduated with honors. We thought he was would end up in the medical or research field but it looks like he's going to be a farmer and that's fine with us. Just wish he would meet a nice girl and have a family, wouldn't mind a few grandbabies ;-)

Anyway they say the average herd size in the southeast is 21 head but the average cattle farmer around here is at or near retirement age and I don't see too many young people willing to come in and take over.

I have a great admiration for the younger folks that are trying to make a go of farming. We've met FarmerCline and he's prime example of a young farmer. He's got a good head on his shoulders and is open to new methods of haying and is solidly determined to make a living farming.

One of the hurdles facing young folks is that farmland around here is disappearing fast for all sorts of reasons. Also lots of farms and farmland are tied up in family inheritance wars between the heirs from the parents of what I call "the greatest generation", the Great Depression era folks, they are dying off fast and far too many of their kids can't come to any kind of settlement.

Well I've rattled on long enough.


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## Waterway64 (Dec 2, 2011)

Let's face some cold hard and historic facts. Owning a cattle operation is a high capital low return operation. Far more so than say truck gardening. I know plenty of young people who would love to have the opportunity to ranch. Also it seems to me cattleman seem to resist retirement more than operators in other segments of ag


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## snowball (Feb 7, 2015)

Well waterway64 & Greatful11 Again I agree with what you both posted I see the same thing. I also have a 24 yr old daughter that has a college deg. was suppose to go on to vet and had a offer to go in to animal repo , I thought that would be the Cat'S ass maybe get a break on embryo work , 3 days after graduation, shes buying open heifers to bred and increase her cow herd. Long story short she too is 1 of the few that age that what to run a cow herd .We all know this is not like grain farming you increase you corn or bean ac 1 yr because you can make a huge profit, it takes yrs to increase a herd size and a lot of heartache in the process When I first moved to south central Ia. 20 yr ago everybody had cows you could rent pasture for 15.00 per ac moved 2 yrs ago 2/3 of the cows were gone and IF you could find pasture it was at least 100.00 but some was 150.00 the land owner was usually only allowing 1 pair per 3 acs. pencil that one out ! When corn went to 8.00 the pasture got put to corn as the cows headed to the sale barn & the dozer pushed the fences to a ditch. it will never go back to pasture.I'am not going to bash the younger generation because they need to fill our shoes, But form what I've seen if they can't do it with a laptop & GPS they really don't want to much to do with it. Last I knew my cows aren't equipped with GPS and my Bulls don't breed a cow every time I fire. up my laptop. But I'am breeding for that !!! I'll stop carrying on now. We all know what it takes to run a cow herd


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## Tim/South (Dec 12, 2011)

My son would love to farm full time. He is a college grad and starting a new business venture. I know he has to begin building his life. He loves farming and fishing and made more on bass tournaments last year than he did on his cows.

Two weeks ago we helped a friend work his calves. I was giving vaccinations and my son was cutting the bull calves. We worked 98 calves. Last Saturday we helped another friend work 49 calves.

It is fun working and spending time with my son. Most of the time we seem to read each other's mind. I never have to ask for his help, he is always asking me what I have going on and arranges his schedule to help if needed.


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## deadmoose (Oct 30, 2011)

I disagree about the willingness of young people to get into farming. Their ability to afford it is the big hurdle.

Many young kids start out growing up on farms with small herds. Some without. By the time they can afford to have a decent sized spread that might support their family (after many years of farming after work and on weekends, holidays, and days off), they are no longer in their 20's. Maybe not 30's.

Plenty give up along the way and stick with the day job. Why retire when you finally get your dream job?


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## snowball (Feb 7, 2015)

Please don't think I was bashing ALL the younger kids That is not what I meant, There are alot of young kids that what to have livestock But you are right $$$ is a big issue and for some reason Banks are very apprehensive to help young farmers buy livestock I understand Some of their reasons but still don't agree with them What I was referring too is the number of younger farmers that let the livestock leave the farm when their parents leave the farm. The point that I was making is I don't see a major surge in the increase of cows in the future, the odds are not in the cows favor. There are alot of hard working kids out there and Thank the Good Lord for them


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## deadmoose (Oct 30, 2011)

We are talking about 2 different groups of kids. Both out there. The ones you refer to can at times make it harder for the ones I refer to to get started.

Kids inherit farm see payoff from developer. Not the same kids who grew up wishing to be a farmer. Society these days depends on both. I say skip the development of the farm.


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## snowball (Feb 7, 2015)

AGREED withe Skip the Development, unless they retain grazing rights in the front yard, when the people in those half million $ are wondering why red meat cost more per lb than a tank of gas for their Hummer MAYBE they will get a clue. I had a nights sleep on my previous posts, I would never discourage any parent or young person from wanting to get in the livestock industry. BUT I also know and have seen MANY young Kids either walk away or turn down the chance to either start or take over a cow/calf operation, any usually they claim the ( THE WORK IS NOT WORTH THE REWARD ) Those words weigh heavy on me. But what gives me hope is some of the post I've read on this subject about their kids I say (GIVE'EM HELL BOYS & GIRLS ) Example: At 11 pm last night I got a call from a 26 yr old that was putting a gooseneck ball in his 8 yr old pickup so he could haul some open hfs home that he just bought to bred. I don't know this young man personal ,the reason for the call... He has a full time job has a machinery salesman,He was following up on the info he had sent me. I could ramble on for page after page on this subject. Sometimes the reward for the work that is done is not always in the bank acc. It's at 2 am when you are in a 36 degree rain getting a new born calf going on a 1st calf heifer and when daylight comes it's licked dry and up and sucking. Too me that is the reward for the work.


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## Tim/South (Dec 12, 2011)

It is you up before daylight in freezing weather because the solar vortex made an appearance and you know a cow is due that you realize not many people would do what you are doing. Then you realize the other owners with cows due are doing exactly what you are doing.

It is staying up to grind and wield because you have to have it fixed by morning. No complaining, no overtime, you can not afford to lose daylight getting the repair done.

Those outside the circle will never see any of it. You just can't see it from the road.


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## snowball (Feb 7, 2015)

Well said my friend ,well said. Or when your 100 miles from home on a Saturday evening at a wedding . Just got the !st cold beer in you hand Catching up with how things are going with long time friends and the call comes " YOU NEED TO GET HOME ASAP YOUR COWS ARE OUT" so you drive 80 mph the whole 100 mile trip thinking (HOW THE HOLLY HELL DID THAT HAPPEN ) You spent the whole afternoon before you left checking the fence your wife chewing your ass because ,your driving like a idiot and she is scared & mad because you just spent 100.oo on a motel room that will not get used. You get home, sun headed over the ridge, neighbor chewing your ass they are in his cornfield it's 89 degrees, corn is tit high on you, both still in your good clothes, things go well you get them back just as dark sets in, you walk the fence for 45 mins ( IN THE DARK ) find 3 rods of fence down , investigate find the coop sprayed the cornfield that morning and new operator took fence out, 2 days later you discuss the issue with the coop argue over cond. of the fence finally come to terms . 2 weeks later you pickup feed at the coop the neighbor is there selling corn. You walk in nervous about the welcome you might not get. The Coop Manger starts telling a joke your neighbors laughs ,you do too , He says (YOUR CALVES LOOK NICE ) you reply (LOOKS LIKE YOU GOT 225 bu. CORN ) He smiles says (YA Might need another wagon )come get mine you say, He replys let me know when you are working calves "I'll HELP " ........ What a life THATS THE PAY OFF..... Sorry for the long post


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