# Fire the weatherman!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1



## Production Acres (Jul 29, 2008)

Wed. evening, the forcast changes and it is supposed to be dry through Tues. afternoon. We fire the cutter up and get about 40 acres down. Cut about 120 acres on thursday, and friday cut another 100 acres 10 miles down the road. To let you know how wet it is here in AUGUST!!!!!!!!! the wonderful 4X4 swather gets stuck in the field!!!!!!!!!!!!! The neighbor owns a tractor dealership and sent a backhoe over to pull the driver out - they bring a piece of trash chain that snaps and comes backward through the windshield;.) $800 just for the glass!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Friday afternoon, we are pushing it just a little and we bale about 20 acres. Saturday, we push a little more and bale about 30 acres saving the better fields for latter in the afternoon so they will dry a little better - it suddenly rains for an hour ------------ but the farm 10 miles away doesn't get a drop :.) Sunday, after church the rakes are immediatly in the field on the beautiful O/A hay and bam!!!!! another 1 hour storm from nowhere with a 0% rain forcast all weekend! And today, soaking wet hay and 40% chance of rain for next 10 days. Should have planted the whole farm in corn this summer, or maybe rice!


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## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

Same here.The weather sucks this yr.It's raining here now.One little spot on the radar.I thought I'd be getting some baleing done today.GRRRRRThis is the absolute worst yr I've had for making hay ever.Besides the bad weather the hay market is not that great either.


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## UpNorth (Jun 15, 2009)

Don't know if you guys have even considered getting a forecasting subscription from DTN but if you have a lot of acres it may be worth it. They got their start in the Midwest and a lot dariy/cash grain people use them for the weather forecasts and marketing their grains. Might be worth checking out. They actually sell weather to the National Weather Service as they have a lot of weather stations throughout the country.

DTN/The Progressive Farmer: Agriculture Markets, News and Weather


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## hunt2r (Dec 4, 2008)

We have had 10 inches of rain in the last 7 days. I feel your pain. I don't think even rice would like it, maybe aquaculture.


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## mlappin (Jun 25, 2009)

Having the exact opposite problem here the last month, they keep calling for rain but we don't get a drop. Out of the last 5 days or so, 3 of them had a 80%+ chance for rain, we got a quarter inch out of all of it, and the first four hours the sun was out it was gone.

Have a field that I made the second on over two weeks ago, it has less then six inches of regrowth now and any where near a treeline it has gone dormant.

Was very wet here earlier in the year, and from the excess water then, the roots aren't near as deep as I'd like to see on the rowcrops.

Fire the weatherman?? More like tar and feather for starters.


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## haybaler101 (Nov 30, 2008)

UpNorth said:


> Don't know if you guys have even considered getting a forecasting subscription from DTN but if you have a lot of acres it may be worth it. They got their start in the Midwest and a lot dariy/cash grain people use them for the weather forecasts and marketing their grains. Might be worth checking out. They actually sell weather to the National Weather Service as they have a lot of weather stations throughout the country.
> 
> DTN/The Progressive Farmer: Agriculture Markets, News and Weather


The DTN's around here have the same NOAA weather forecast that our stupid weathermen use. The fact of the matter is, we are in a very wet weather pattern and it WILL rain on a 30% chance especially if you have hay on the ground. My favorite forecast is PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN, covers all the bases!


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## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

Canceled my DTN when it went to $80 a month.You can find pretty much every thing for free on the internet.


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## mlappin (Jun 25, 2009)

swmnhay said:


> Canceled my DTN when it went to $80 a month.You can find pretty much every thing for free on the internet.


Same here, then when I told them their weather wasn't any better than anyone elses, they replied that I needed to pay even more for their premium weather package. Course they wouldn't promise what their accuracy would be so I told them to forget it and canceled the whole shebang.


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## Heyhay..eh (Aug 7, 2009)

Some of the aviation sites are free to use and might be a help to you. They usually aren't very long range but you can get a good picture of what is happening in North America. Here is one of many sites

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_sfc_map.gif

It looks like there might be hundreds.

Take care


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## Production Acres (Jul 29, 2008)

We just need Al Gore to personally give us the weather forcast as he can perdict acurately what the weather will be in 50-100 years enough to push this cap and trade crap. If they cannot forcast the weather acurately for 24 hours - how can you even begin to believe them on anything else. 
We use the weather channel online and weather scout on the cell phone to give 2 different forcasts, and on fronts comming thru, they are pretty accurate, on pop up thunderstorms, they haven't a clue!


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## mlappin (Jun 25, 2009)

For anybody that has row crops to market, check out this service from Cargill. A person can check how many contracts they have, when they need delivered, and can even sign new contracts digitally. The weather seems to be just as good (or bad) as any other.


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## haybaler101 (Nov 30, 2008)

Al Gore! Ha Ha, Right on the money on global warming. Been freezing my ass off most of the summer. Corn crop is only 5 weeks behind.


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## HALLSHAY (Nov 30, 2008)

Same story here in Colorado. Drove around to an area along the river and saw 20,000-30,000 tons of big squares in stacks and only about 350 tons of decent hay to look at. Had a perfect forecast here about 10 days ago and have been fighting showers and high humidity the whole time. Had to back away from from baling 250 acres of nice alfalfa that got 3/4 after drying day 3 by a freak 3 am storm. A local friend with 7 circles of 2nd on the ground got over an inch of rain in the same storm. Needed to start cutting some orchard/alfalfa 2nd and a 50% chance of rain showed up this morning by 3 different news networks. Had 1 little cell move by to the south at about 4 and missed one of the best drying days of the summer, 95 and south breeze. Glad I don't have the big acres to harvest on a year like this.
I have baled and bought less than 20 loads of local good green alfalfa and mix. Normally we have started to accumulate a pretty good stock pile of good hay. Now I have a barn full of not quite #1 1st and 2nd.
So far it has been a disaster and it could continue because we are biting the bullet and laying down almost 200 acres of 2 1/2 ton mix tomorrow. I will either be happy or grumpy in about 5 days.


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## kfarm_EC_IL (Aug 5, 2008)

Left a wagon in the field over night No RAIN until following afternoon. Got up at 4 checked the radar and had rain about 20 minutes away. Fortunatley I was able to get the wagon in. It didn't rain that afternoon or the next day. A completely wrong forcast. I generally check 4 weather sites and our local weather, and I have been getting 6 different forcasts. It can't be that hard! I agree with the earlier comment that it rains on a 30% chance and then doesn't on a 80% chance. This has been the most frustrating thing I have ever had to deal with. I have been so concerned with weather that I have left a lot of hay to long. Starting to have trouble getting good drying days.

I'm looking forward to next year RIGHT??
Mark


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## Production Acres (Jul 29, 2008)

Most people have no idea how much money you can loose in a good 30 minute rainstorm, especially with a forcast of more rain for the rest of the week. Hay that could of hit the alpaca market at $325/ton is now worth $75-125/ton over 250 acres. 
Glad I don''t control the weather, I would probably screw something up!


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## hay wilson in TX (Jan 28, 2009)

There are a few things to keep in mind. First it seldom rains during a drought and it usually rains during a wet spell. 
When they say there is a 50% Probability of Precipitation that means that in the past when conditions looked like this it rained 50% of the time, and by the same token half the time it does not rain. With a 30% PoP there is a 70% probability it will not rain.

Usually a forecast is for a 100 mile diameter circle. 
When they say isolate rains they mean maybe 10% of the ground in the circle will get wet. Not saying how much though. Those who do get wet may see 2" of rain or .01" of rain. 
When they say scattered they mean maybe a third of the ground in the circle will get wet.
When they say likely they mean usually half or more of the ground will see rain and it will be reasonably uniform.

When the TV people give a forecast they are usually talking about a good size area.

NOAA and the NWS are usually more specific than the TV folks. Still they have a tendency to adjust the numbers up or down to match their idea of what is happening.


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## mlappin (Jun 25, 2009)

Good points Wilson, but I hate it when you watch several forecasts in the morning, none of them call for rain for at least 3 days, you get in for lunch after mowing hay, still no call for rain and by supper they all change their tune and the thirty acres of hay you just mowed starts getting washed by noon the next day.


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## hay wilson in TX (Jan 28, 2009)

If I were in the hay business in North Liberty, Indiana I probably would become a nervous wreck.

This link is for my local, in theory. You might be able to get it to telly you a forecast on an hour to hour bases for your location. 
Tabular Weather Forecast for 31.09N 97.39W (Elev. 646 ft)
Depending on the blocks checked it can give a fair forecast on the humidity, as well as chance of rain, cloud cover &c.

These can come in handy IF you know the raw probability for rain in your location. 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

This has the forecast for days 3 thru 7.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_POP_wbg.gif You can change the address to reflect DAY4 &c.

Because I like to have my forecast data 5:30 AM Central Time, I subscribe to the AWIS.com : Consulting, Data & Forecasts for Ag, Energy, Retail and Industry see;

Subscriber Login:
Agricultural Weather Service

Now I must say I have to put in considerable effort using a spread sheet to track their forecast. In a perfect world, a forecast for 17% PoP on the next Sunday would be the same precipatation probability come that Sunday, but this is not a perfect world.

I had a slight advantage in that I had to take two courses on weather forecasting in the AF while attending flying schools. Then I got to look at and use weather data as it would effect our flying. 
Let me also say that the way the military thinks and the way NOAA thinks are worlds apart. Plus I do not have a forecaster giving me the benefit of his accumulated knowledge for weather here on this farm. 
Let me say, I have tried the patience of the good people at AWIS from time to time.

The final decision to cut or not to cut is always mine. 
Using their data in a home made spread sheet has proven very useful. 
Now I seldom cut and have hay rained on, or as important not cut and have 10 days of perfect hay weather.


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