# Beef Herd Expanding



## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

and very quickly according to this Purdue economist.....from Growing TN.

Regards, Mike

http://growingtennessee.com/news/2015/08/purdue-economist-beef-herd-expanding-quickly-but-will-it-continue/?utm_source=Growing+Tennessee&utm_campaign=291f3e9eef-growingtennessee-daily_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d75710df8e-291f3e9eef-296641129


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## snowball (Feb 7, 2015)

I didn't read it word for word just glanced thought.. so maybe shouldn't comment... BUT I saw where their are using the USDA survey .. that was enough for me .. right know I don't think the USDA has a Clue what is really going on as far as replacement females.. Their goal make the numbers look good to take any panic out of the red meat market.. I still don't think we will ever see the number of cows that we used to have before... They are just to expensive and too much work for most people anymore.... The pastures are gone and growing 3.00 corn and 9.00 beans. & 4.00 wheat


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## Tim/South (Dec 12, 2011)

Good article Mike.

One thing not mentioned is the length of time to takes for a heifer to put money on the table. She is three years old before her calf is ready to wean. The USDA is counting retained heifers as momma cows. Retained heifers are in limbo and can not really be counted in herd expansion until they begin to produce.

A lot of the profit people are making in cattle right now is being recycled back into the cattle industry by purchasing momma cows, retaining heifers or buying bred heifers.

With high prices across the board, expansion is expensive. It still takes about 2 calves to pay for a cow, same as in the past. A person has to decide on keeping heifers as a three year investment or getting the money up front right now.

It costs a lot to keep a heifer for 3 years.


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## Tim/South (Dec 12, 2011)

snowball said:


> I still don't think we will ever see the number of cows that we used to have before... They are just to expensive and too much work for most people anymore.... The pastures are gone and growing 3.00 corn and 9.00 beans. & 4.00 wheat


Good point and I agree.

The first year of the drought a lot of grass was stunted. The second year a lot of grass died. The high cost to replace pasture and cattle is hard to pencil out.


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## snowball (Feb 7, 2015)

Tim/South said:


> Good point and I agree.
> The first year of the drought a lot of grass was stunted. The second year a lot of grass died. The high cost to replace pasture and cattle is hard to pencil out.


I used to rent good pasture for 35-50.00 per ac.. now that kind of ground is being farmed.. IF and I mean a big IF you can find pasture to rent it's 100 to 150 ac now and is so steep or poor you can put a tractor on it I read somewhere the average age of the cattlemen is 56 yrs old IMO that means fewer and fewer young guys ..That's not a good sign either cows used to be 1000. per hd, now they are 2500 if I was a young man again today I'am not sure I would want to get in the cow business with pasture so hard to find and high priced cows


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## Tim/South (Dec 12, 2011)

What confuses me a little is calf prices are picking back up here. Southeastern calves take a hit during the summer, 95 degree days and high mortality. They dropped here during July and are inching their way up again. Come Labor Day and I bet our prices will be back to normal highs.

I do not see how a stocker operator can afford to pay us what they pay for calves. The price of cattle ready to go on feed has dropped. Finished cattle prices have dropped. I scan DVauctions and watch cattle auctions across the nation. Calf prices are still very high. The supply is just not there yet.

Hard to figure how the stockers and feed lots stay in the black.


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## snowball (Feb 7, 2015)

Tim/South said:


> What confuses me a little is calf prices are picking back up here. Southeastern calves take a hit during the summer, 95 degree days and high mortality. They dropped here during July and are inching their way up again. Come Labor Day and I bet our prices will be back to normal highs.
> 
> I do not see how a stocker operator can afford to pay us what they pay for calves. The price of cattle ready to go on feed has dropped. Finished cattle prices have dropped. I scan DVauctions and watch cattle auctions across the nation. Calf prices are still very high. The supply is just not there yet.
> Hard to figure how the stockers and feed lots stay in the black.


Well Tim it's like anything else they just can't jump in or out depending on the price . I think they average out their input cost of their calves. also the JMO but the price of corn keeps dropping so that has increased the demand on feeder cattle too don't you think ?I've also noticed the feed lots are starting to overlook the mortality rate on southern calves. because those calves are available right now and are still cheaper than western calves JMO though.. I sure as hell hope they are make'n some $ cause I need them to keep buy'n my calves LOL


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## Tim/South (Dec 12, 2011)

Cheaper corn prices should work in favor of the feed lot. I do not know if corn prices can make up for the $22 cwt. fat cattle have lost. Stockers have lost $24 cwt. (This is the current price compared to the inflated record highs)

The consumer eventually dictates the price and demand. It seems to me that retailers are waiting for the beef shortage to pass and promoting other meats in the mean time.

If the beef supply does not rebound back to normal numbers then adjustments will be made. The packers and retailers have built in profit margins. The farmers (cow/calf) and growers (stockers and feedlots) do not.

Consumers have alternatives. Beef is not like gasoline. We had to adjust our mindset to account for fuel prices. The consumer has other options than beef.


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## snowball (Feb 7, 2015)

Tim/South said:


> Cheaper corn prices should work in favor of the feed lot. I do not know if corn prices can make up for the $22 cwt. fat cattle have lost. Stockers have lost $24 cwt. (This is the current price compared to the inflated record highs)
> The consumer eventually dictates the price and demand. It seems to me that retailers are waiting for the beef shortage to pass and promoting other meats in the mean time.
> If the beef supply does not rebound back to normal numbers then adjustments will be made. The packers and retailers have built in profit margins. The farmers (cow/calf) and growers (stockers and feedlots) do not.
> Consumers have alternatives. Beef is not like gasoline. We had to adjust our mindset to account for fuel prices. The consumer has other options than beef.


I've thought the same thing.. but 5.00 a hamburger hasn't slowed up the consumer yet.. maybe the cheaper gas price has the consumer funneling the money into their red meat buying mindset.. just remember the bird flu has driven the chicken prices up alot and pork isn't dirt cheap either


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## hog987 (Apr 5, 2011)

Now with the drought in western Canada and our low Canadian dollar some of our mamma cows are being exported to the States. This will help expand your herd and built numbers quicker for you. But at the expense of our herds. So in reality the North American herd will be about the same in size.

Its funny. With the drought here the retail market for beef raised the price. Blaming the drought and low beef numbers. The funny thing is the sell off of the cattle had not begun yet at that time. Now it has started but it still takes time. If I sell an old cow now instead of keeping her. Its still 2-3 years before her calf enters the retail beef market.


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## Tim/South (Dec 12, 2011)

hog987 said:


> Its funny. With the drought here the retail market for beef raised the price. Blaming the drought and low beef numbers.


The same thing happened in the U.S. when the drought hit. Cattle flooded the market and auction prices went down. Retail prices went up.

Later when it began to rain I read where an economist said retail prices should go down because it rained.

If did not rain cows and calves.


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