# Commodity prices



## endrow (Dec 15, 2011)

Grain ,cattle,and milk are all headed south price wise right now. The last two USDA Report have been terribly bearish. Do you think the inventories are as strong as they are reporting? Do you think any of the commodity markets will improve in the near future.


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## PaMike (Dec 7, 2013)

I am getting rather worried across the board about the economy. I work in the industrial market and things are bad. Stainless prices are as low as they have been since 09. I have steel and plastics suppliers begging for orders. My MSC (industrial supply) rep said is feels like another 08-09 for her. Every month her orders drop. The only segment I see going well in this area is construction. Builders, excavators, plumbers are busy.

My guess is its going to be a 2-3 year cycle of down swing in commodities...


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## dubltrubl (Jul 19, 2010)

I have to agree Mike. My take is after the holiday season we'll see things take a steep nosedive. Retailers always count on the holiday season for sales and anticipate good earnings. About the time the superbowl is over, the earnings reports come in. We'll see then. From what I see, most folks don't have the discretionary income that they usually have. Businesses are taking a wait and see approach and aren't making capital expenditures nor are they hiring. I think we're heading for some rough times.

Steve


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## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

Scrap iron is at a all time low,for the time the guys I know that work there anyway.

20 unprepared,25 prepared.It always has been $20 more for prepared but they cut that to $5.

Low demand for scrap iron = low demand for new steel = shitty economy


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## bbos2 (Mar 20, 2015)

I definitely think tough times in ag are here for a few years. But I'm gonna be a little bullish on my thinking headed toward spring. Usda has a national average of corn that is higher than last year. I have a real hard time believing that seeing as how a lot of the country was seeing record yields in '14. There was a lot more wet and tough areas in 15'. I'm hoping this will lead to a short term rally, maybe guys can market 15 and some of 16. I try to be optimistic. Intrest rates are low which helps. And we need to get those anti ethanol comercials off tv!!!


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## Thorim (Jan 19, 2015)

swmnhay said:


> Scrap iron is at a all time low,for the time the guys I know that work there anyway.
> 
> 20 unprepared,25 prepared.It always has been $20 more for prepared but they cut that to $5.
> 
> Low demand for scrap iron = low demand for new steel = shitty economy


Price of scrap metal is horrible here in Michigan I took in 300 lbs of ferrous metal last week and got 6 dollars and that was with a 10 % bonus because I am a Vet


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## PaMike (Dec 7, 2013)

Scrap is so low my buddy bought the scrap pile back at his dads estate auction last week...

Had to be a couple tons there and he only gave $12 for it. They have more junk to clean out,and hes buying the farm so he figured might as well let it set there till the price is back up...


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## Waterway64 (Dec 2, 2011)

I can't understand why the dollar keeps getting stronger. It is killing commodity prices.


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## deadmoose (Oct 30, 2011)

Because as messed up as our country is, others are WORSE. The evils of liberalism are growing around the world.


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## mlappin (Jun 25, 2009)

Jeez guys according to the democrats the economy has never been better, unemployment is almost at the impossible to achieve 5%.


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## BWfarms (Aug 3, 2015)

I'm kind of skipping a little bit, I'm about to enter the buyers ring this go around. My build up stalled for the last couple of years as I relied solely on my calf crop for expansion. Look on the bright side, after all this is a hay forum, I predict hay to at least stay strong if not go higher.


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## rjmoses (Apr 4, 2010)

mlappin said:


> Jeez guys according to the democrats the economy has never been better, unemployment is almost at the impossible to achieve 5%.


That swamp property I got back in November, 2008 is up for sale--only $30,000/acre.

Ralph


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## steve IN (Jan 13, 2010)

Sorry to say this folks but the grain market the last few years was insane and in the long run absolutely no good for our economy. Ethanol (from corn) has been around since Nixon. When you mandate that something must be used you take away the incentive to look for something better, The commodity love story is ending..Those of us who have been around awhile know that all markets run in cycles. This is the third downturn I have seen in my life. I personally am glad for this . I mean no harm to most but for some of these kids and even some older guys the day of reckoning with high rents ,fancy trucks and shiny new equipment is at hand. The corn lobby along with the EPA has done its best run the cellulosic ethanol industry out of the country. I pay extra to have 100% gasoline and diesel fuel delivered to the farm. I have also chosen to forgo ALL FSA payments and this also includes crop insurance. In my opinion this downturn will last several years but for people with some brains and a strong work ethic it will also provide some great oppurtunities to take advantage of.


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## azmike (Jan 4, 2015)

http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2015/11/11/cattle-conundrum/?intcmp=ob_homepage_industries&intcmp=obnetwork

More negative news


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## steve IN (Jan 13, 2010)

Good article. My parents own a restaurant/tavern and they have complained about the price of beef, in particular the prime rib which is or was a top seller on Friday and Saturdays. I told them that when your sales start to decline then you will see the price to you come down. As they sold fewer and fewer steaks their price came down. They are slowly selling more now. The market as with all products when the price becomes to high then there will fewer sold. As I stated above I truly believe we ,farmers, are in for a very tough time ahead as our industry begins to determine a fair value. as always the markets go too high and during an adjustment will go too low for an extended time. Problem is inputs do not react as fast as the grain markets do. An old saying is "The cure for high prices is higher prices and the cure for low prices are even lower prices." The pace of this adjustment will be determined by the Fed rate, value of dollar and as always the banks determining who is worthy of survival.


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## endrow (Dec 15, 2011)

No doubt about it the quickest remedy for overpriced goods is over pricing. My biggest fear is will these inputs required to produce these commodities come down in line with production. It isn't always easy as new trucks and combines. I continue to maintain the farm buildings the farm equipment and soil and soil fertility and soil pH. That cannot be done at the snap of a finger in the minutes time that takes years and you can't turn it off like a light switch. Some of everything go to hell when the prices are low I don't believe in that. Guys used to scream and holler going back to $2 corn and $4 beans, up until about 3-4 years ago I could have stood that but with the cost of the inputs being put in place with $8 corn and $16 beans . The industry is going to have to give at the other end as well.


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## endrow (Dec 15, 2011)

Farming kind of seems like a rat race sometimes but this is what always kept me going


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## glasswrongsize (Sep 15, 2015)

That's about what my boot pile looked like about 2 weeks ago and my youngest reminds me of your lil girl. Then last week she call me and say "Dad?? (voice cracking) I missed the stop sign in the fog and I'm in the ditch. Can you come get me?"&#8230;well, it SEEMS like it was 2 weeks ago when the boot pile was the same as yours.
She's still my best help, but the mud and manure have gotten a little MORE "yucky" and the boys a little LESS so.
73, Mark


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