# Hey Weather Channel....



## gosh (Sep 28, 2014)

YOU SUCK.


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## broadriverhay (Jun 13, 2014)

It is not just the weather channel. None of the weather forecast around here ever match. Then they look out the window and change the forecast. This time of year they just say 20% to 30% chance of afternoon scattered showers and that way they can't miss.


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## gosh (Sep 28, 2014)

Started the day with ZERO chance of rain. ZERO. Great day to cut hay.

Had some mechanical difficulties, which would later turn out to be a blessing in disguise.

Start cutting. Noticed clouds to the west that kept getting darker. Uh oh. Came in and checked the computer. Still zero chance of rain. Suspicious, I looked at the radar map. A small thunderstorm was maybe 30 miles to the west but headed my way. Went outside and waved my son off the field.

Here it came. The ZERO chance of rain pounded us pretty hard. Right as it hit, I get an alert on my phone saying it's a thunderstorm. And the icing on the cake is that as we were getting rained on by our ZERO chance of rain, the forecast still said there was a ZERO chance of rain!

Not sure I've ever been thankful for a mechanical issue before, but that problem allowed only 5 acres or so to be cut, so thank God for that. Meanwhile, the Weather Channel has earned a view of my middle finger.

I should be more thankful. Sorry. But it felt good to get it off my chest, so there you have it.


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## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

Accuweather has 95% chance of thunderstorms for me tommorow and TV says 20%


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## gosh (Sep 28, 2014)

swmnhay said:


> Accuweather has 95% chance of thunderstorms for me tommorow and TV says 20%


Which of those two sources has the better track record of accuracy in your experience?


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## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

gosh said:


> Which of those two sources has the better track record of accuracy in your experience?


accuweather,but the TV tends to predict more rain and bad weather that never happens.


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## Colby (Mar 5, 2012)

Yeah the weather channel isn't worth a crap. 
I use NOAA and NWS and Texas Storm Chasers. Usually between the 3 I can figure out if I should cut or not


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## glasswrongsize (Sep 15, 2015)

Bill Wilson (I hope he is recovering) has the paid subscription to this AWIS; there is a free "trial" site that only gives 5 day's forecast (counting today). MIght add that one to the mix. I tend to like it as it gives FAR more info than the normal weather guessers. I use as just ANOTHER one to add to the mix.

http://www.awis.com/cgi-bin/uncgi/zipwx.uncgi

73, Mark


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## Grateful11 (Apr 5, 2009)

There's a guy on FaceBook called WxSouth that's a paid subscription but he gives updates when there's severe weather coming in and he's usually pretty darn accurate.

Here's his Blog:

http://wxsouth.com/wxblog/author/wxsouth/

Back in the day when the TV guys used a board and magic marker and actually looked outside to see what things were like, I think they were far more accurate. These days they seem to just sit and wait for the computer models to spit out the latest forecast and slap on the screen or online their website. I've been somewhat of an amateur weather person for a long time. I've been keeping some records for almost 50 years, mostly weather extremes and rainfall measurements. I tend to watch for the "signs" as my Dad and Grandpa taught me.


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## Dill (Nov 5, 2010)

Weather Underground is my go to. I do have accu and weather channel on my phone but I trust WU a lot more and they constant update so it really feeds the weather addiction.


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## weatherman (Dec 5, 2008)

Yep. Scanned five weather channels every few hours to include accu weather, weather channel, NWS and local channels. Rain was forecast wee hours Monday morning. Cut 17 acres Saturday. When I was finished weather guy now says rain expected Sunday mid day. I had a few choice words for those idiots. So I baled half the field starting at 4pm day after cutting with temps in high 70s. I also ted twice. Baled with 20% moisture, added crop saver. A on/off rain fell next 30 hours dropping no more than 3/4" of rain. Got a guy coming tomorrow to round bake, maybe.


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## FarmerCline (Oct 12, 2011)

I know the feeling.....I have had the same thing happen.....getting rained on while it's saying a 0% chance and also on the flip side never get a drop out of 100% chance. Here it almost seems that the weather channel is the most accurate but that's not saying much at all. Seems like accuweather is wrong a lot more and is overly optimistic of the chance of rain.....if I listened to them I don't know if I would ever cut any hay. NOAA seems to be fairly close to the weather channel forecast.....I usually compare those two to see if I feel like I can cut.


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## Grateful11 (Apr 5, 2009)

Weather Underground used to be our go to until it this happened and frankly don't find it anymore accurate for our neck of the woods than Weather Channel. NOAA seems to get about as close as anyone around here.

"On July 2, 2012, The Weather Channel announced that it would acquire Weather Underground, which become operated as part of The Weather Channel Companies, LLC, which was later renamed "The Weather Company". The Weather Underground website continues to operate as a separate entity from The Weather Channel's primary site, weather.com, with its existing staff retained. Third-party web analytics providers Alexa and SimilarWeb rate the site as the 117th and 98th most visited website in the United States respectively, as of July 2015.[6][7] SimilarWeb rates the site as the second most visited weather website globally, attracting more than 47 million visitors per month.[7][8] The Weather Company also uses the site's San Francisco headquarters as a regional office.[9][10]

On October 28, 2015, Jeff Masters noted that IBM had officially announced an agreement to acquire The Weather Company's business-to-business, mobile and cloud-based web properties, including Weather Underground, WSI, weather.com, and also the Weather Company brand. Meanwhile, the television service (The Weather Channel) remains a separate entity.[11] The deal was finalized on January 29, 2016.[1]"


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## Three44s (May 21, 2016)

To the OP,

You cut it and it rained the same day ............ you lucked out!

If it had been close to baling and it rained ..... then ......... you've got it bad!

Three 44s


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## hillside hay (Feb 4, 2013)

This may be a little off track but it's close enough for me to throw it in here. I acquired a beautiful narrow strip CV near the river 7 years back. Absolutely beautiful thick orchard and bromegrass. Consistently 3.5 tpa first and 2 tpa second year in year out. Great right? Naha not so fast. It has yet to be put up without getting rained on into mulch. Every year weather forecast is good the bromegrass let's me delay cutting until mid July if need be. So, the weather is great I even have time to spare. I cut it Ted it out a couple times rake it weather still great. Then without fail the western horizon starts to darken. I check it it's around 20-22% right at the upper level. I start baling. I get. The first little section done and a few spatters hit the fender. I glance heavenward pleading for an hour and a half. The spatters seem to subside and there is a good breeze aerating the windrow. Still at 22% so I hammer down stuffing that baler making 8-10 slice bales. After ten minutes it's like a skydam bursts. 
Once or twice I n 7 years I would say it's coincidence. Every year? Nah. I just had to laugh it off this year. I have renamed the parcel Chief Waneme's rain dance. In future years I will withhold cutting Chief Waneme's until such a time as other operators are dry enough that I can charge for irrigation.???? Gotta love it.


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## Tx Jim (Jun 30, 2014)

hillside hay said:


> . I check it it's around 20-22% right at the upper level. I start baling. I get. The first little section done and a few spatters hit the fender. I glance heavenward pleading for an hour and a half. The spatters seem to subside and there is a good breeze aerating the windrow. Still at 22% so I hammer down stuffing that baler making 8-10 slice bales. .


How do you keep 22% moisture hay from molding? I'll guess you apply hay preservative.


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## hillside hay (Feb 4, 2013)

Yep


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## broadriverhay (Jun 13, 2014)

I cut today with local tv weather saying 100 degrees and 20% chance of scattered storms for all week. 5 hours later it rains a little then local stations say 50% chance , no sh#$%%&$#. They are worthless as screen doors on submarines.


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## luke strawwalker (Jul 31, 2014)

hillside hay said:


> This may be a little off track but it's close enough for me to throw it in here. I acquired a beautiful narrow strip CV near the river 7 years back. Absolutely beautiful thick orchard and bromegrass. Consistently 3.5 tpa first and 2 tpa second year in year out. Great right? Naha not so fast. It has yet to be put up without getting rained on into mulch. Every year weather forecast is good the bromegrass let's me delay cutting until mid July if need be. So, the weather is great I even have time to spare. I cut it Ted it out a couple times rake it weather still great. Then without fail the western horizon starts to darken. I check it it's around 20-22% right at the upper level. I start baling. I get. The first little section done and a few spatters hit the fender. I glance heavenward pleading for an hour and a half. The spatters seem to subside and there is a good breeze aerating the windrow. Still at 22% so I hammer down stuffing that baler making 8-10 slice bales. After ten minutes it's like a skydam bursts.
> Once or twice I n 7 years I would say it's coincidence. Every year? Nah. I just had to laugh it off this year. I have renamed the parcel Chief Waneme's rain dance. In future years I will withhold cutting Chief Waneme's until such a time as other operators are dry enough that I can charge for irrigation. Gotta love it.


I hear ya...

I have a theory that excess heat, moisture, and dust (rain nuclei around which raindrops form) cause local instability in the atmosphere that triggers rain. That's why when you have hay drying down, the escaping moisture raises the humidity and makes the atmosphere more conducive to rain, then throw in the heat being released by burning diesel fuel and frictional heating of the equipment as it operates, plus the rising dust and diesel particulates in the hot exhaust rising up into the atmosphere creates lift and provides a ready source of nuclei around which raindrops then form. This then creates a thunderstorm that invariably rains you out and ends all harvesting or field operations.

It's as good a theory as any...

Later! OL J R


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## glasswrongsize (Sep 15, 2015)

luke strawwalker said:


> I hear ya...
> 
> I have a theory that excess heat, moisture, and dust (rain nuclei around which raindrops form) cause local instability in the atmosphere that triggers rain. That's why when you have hay drying down, the escaping moisture raises the humidity and makes the atmosphere more conducive to rain, then throw in the heat being released by burning diesel fuel and frictional heating of the equipment as it operates, plus the rising dust and diesel particulates in the hot exhaust rising up into the atmosphere creates lift and provides a ready source of nuclei around which raindrops then form. This then creates a thunderstorm that invariably rains you out and ends all harvesting or field operations.
> 
> ...


Well heck, we're doomed!!!! Foiled by our own doings!!!

73, Mark


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## Three44s (May 21, 2016)

OK, so by following that reasoning we need an energy source that's not heat producing so we can put up hay without increasing the outside temperature, a steam generator powered by the same so no dust is raised to produce rain nuclei ............ and perhaps an air conditioner large enough to cool our fields as it nears baling time to put the finnishing touches on a "no rain" harvest?

Sounds quite simple ......... LOL!

Best regards and I'll be watching with my dry easel to write down the particulars when you guys get it perfected!

Three 44s


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## Three44s (May 21, 2016)

BTW, a follow up on the above post .............

I ranch in an area that receives just seven inches of precip in a YEAR ............

.............. most of which falls during times when I am putting up hay! :lol:

Seriously, when it looks not so nice ........... I cut hay ........... my theory is that if it rains, the best time to rain on cut hay is when it's still green ....... if you wait for a long dry spell ............. it will be over before you get your hay entirely up.

So by cutting at times that don't look good you actually add more time to the drying time by taking the chance of getting it wet when it matters less.

Three 44s


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## TJH (Mar 23, 2014)

When you take into account that NBC own the weather channel it ought to tell you something. The first thing they did upon taking over was fire all the founding meteorologist.


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## Three44s (May 21, 2016)

Oh, like the air head crowd is running the joint?

I guess I'll have to change who I look at on the 'puter!

Three 44s


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## gosh (Sep 28, 2014)

Three44s said:


> BTW, a follow up on the above post .............
> 
> I ranch in an area that receives just seven inches of precip in a YEAR ............
> 
> ...


I was thinking of doing the very same thing today.


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## Bgriffin856 (Nov 13, 2013)

Have had the most rained on hay this year than any other and it's the driest it has been in years....get a window of four or five days so go mow two days worth of baling down. Get done and look at the forcast and it shortens the window to three or less days... fortunately its rains just light enough to prevent baling and not enough to ruin it...so far

Happens even when all five weather apps on my phone and local news radio and newspaper all say the same thing...


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## joeberg (Jun 8, 2011)

weather.gov is where I hang out.


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## Hayman5555 (Apr 3, 2015)

I have 4 apps - 3 locals and weather underground. About 3 weeks ago I'm getting ready to cut - 2 show 0%, 1 shows 20%, and 1 shows 60%. I can't see that one app is more accurate than another.


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## gosh (Sep 28, 2014)

Hayman5555 said:


> I have 4 apps - 3 locals and weather underground. About 3 weeks ago I'm getting ready to cut - 2 show 0%, 1 shows 20%, and 1 shows 60%. I can't see that one app is more accurate than another.


Which one was closest to being correct? Local or WU?


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## luke strawwalker (Jul 31, 2014)

glasswrongsize said:


> Well heck, we're doomed!!!! Foiled by our own doings!!!
> 
> 73, Mark


I call it the "field warming" theory...

Sorta like global warming, only smaller (and less full of sh!t... LOL)

Later! OL J R


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## luke strawwalker (Jul 31, 2014)

Three44s said:


> BTW, a follow up on the above post .............
> 
> I ranch in an area that receives just seven inches of precip in a YEAR ............
> 
> ...


Exactly...

I'd rather cut with a chance of rain followed by several days of expected "good weather" than wait for the "good weather" to cut and then run the risk of the hay getting washed right before it's ready to bale.

Grandpa never cared if it rained a little on the hay the day it was cut... he said it actually made better hay, because it "washed the dust off it". I can say I have had hay showered on the day it was cut and not had any problems-- with grass hay anyway. So long as it didn't get a gully washer and could be raked the next day or the day after and then baled the following day after that it was indistinguishable from hay that didn't get a shower on it.

When the grass is just cut, I figure a little rain (say quarter inch or less) isn't going to really do anything to it it wouldn't do to the standing grass. The longer after it's cut that it gets showered on, the worse it is IMHO, though. Getting a rain just when it's ready to bale is the absolute WORST from a quality standpoint-- not to mention the extra work to dry it out and get it ready to bale AGAIN.

Later! OL J R


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## Colby (Mar 5, 2012)

I'm a big follower and a big fanatic of the weather so maybe it makes uncertain forecasts a little easier for me to decide. But here if it's 100 degrees in the afternoon and humid and they call for a 20% chance. More than likely we are going to have a good ole summer seabreeze shower. 
Now y'all in the middle of the country, a 20% chance could be a little harder to predict.


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## Tx Jim (Jun 30, 2014)

Here in N central TX 3 days ago we had a 10% chance of showers and recieved 3+ inches over night.


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## weatherman (Dec 5, 2008)

weatherman said:


> Yep. Scanned five weather channels every few hours to include accu weather, weather channel, NWS and local channels. Rain was forecast wee hours Monday morning. Cut 17 acres Saturday. When I was finished weather guy now says rain expected Sunday mid day. I had a few choice words for those idiots. So I baled half the field starting at 4pm day after cutting with temps in high 70s. I also ted twice. Baled with 20% moisture, added crop saver. A on/off rain fell next 30 hours dropping no more than 3/4" of rain. Got a guy coming tomorrow to round bake, maybe.


Finally got the hay baled today. Cut July 1...baled July 7. July 3 - 6, hay was rained on. I probably have the cleanest hay in town.


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## Tater Salad (Jan 31, 2016)

The "weather channel".....Now there's a contradiction in terms ! Like dunkin doughnuts with doughnuts , everything but the weather ! Accu-weather uses the European model of forecasting (we're outdone again !) and at least you can make a decision......."meteorogists"....never understood why we need to know the weather on a meteor........AND use a graduate degree to be wrong ???????....I'm just a simple Tater but ???????????


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## hillside hay (Feb 4, 2013)

Our forecast for midday storms amounted to less than the average mornings dew. Looked bad on radar then poof! Gone!
I'll hand it to them. You can't always depend on the weather to do what it usually does.


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## mlappin (Jun 25, 2009)

Not the weather channel that screwed me this time but Accuweather, NWS and the local channels. Was supposed to be sunny yesterday so I mowed, sun came out about 6pm. Was supposed to be clear and windy today with a high of 81, never got close to 80, was overcast and calm most of the day and humid, tomorrow is supposed to be nice, but so was the today and yesterday. Now they keep moving the chance of rain up, was Wednesday, then late Tuesday night, now by noon Tuesday. Wonder if they have any ideal how much money they can cost people when they screw the pooch?

Oh yah, last night was supposed to be 5-10 mph winds all night and clear, figured good very little dew. Came home a little after mid night from a wedding reception, it was dead calm and trying to get foggy, lawn was wet from dew till after noon today.


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## gosh (Sep 28, 2014)

mlappin said:


> Wonder if they have any ideal how much money they can cost people when they screw the pooch?


Darn good question right there.

I have to admit, they saved me today. Rain was in the forecast for this afternoon. It arrived a little early as we were finishing loading small bales out of the field by hand for a customer. But we got an early enough start because we knew it was coming.

I just wish they could be more consistent that way. If they had stats on weather forecasting like they do for baseball, I wonder what the weatherman's batting average would be? I'm betting they make a lot more money than I do for being wrong a lot....


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## Three44s (May 21, 2016)

gosh said:


> Darn good question right there.
> 
> .............................................................
> 
> ...


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