# 2015 Hay Prices



## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

So it looks like the fuel costs associated with producing round and square bales will be noticeably lower(potentially 1/3 lower) this growing season....not a certainty, but very possible. And N,P, and K seem to be down just a tick or two. Everything else seems to be about the same, for the most part, instead of the constant rise that we have seen the last several years.

The ponder of today is, will you drop 2015 bale pricing any? If so by what percentage? Now think about it a little before answering....you know that (a or some)competitors in your area will lower their prices somewhat to try and get a jump....will that effect you?

It is better to think about preparation instead of waiting and slowly reacting either way.

All the leaves are brown, and the sky is grey.....I went for a walk, on a winter's day. (Circa Mid-1960's)

Thinking and wishing that spring is just around the corner.....on this grey and wet day in the Mid-South.

Regards, Mike


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## sixtyninegmc (Jul 20, 2011)

I was considering jumping my price this summer to begin with, as last year I was $2 per bale cheaper than any of my neighbors. I think with costs coming down, I may just stay where I was, let the rest fall back to my price or make me look good  I like staying a bit cheaper than some guys, but I don't let folks beat me up on the quality of my hay because I am already cheaper, and I am one of the only farmers around who does not complain about not being able to sell everything by spring.


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## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

sixtyninegmc said:


> I was considering jumping my price this summer to begin with, as last year I was $2 per bale cheaper than any of my neighbors. I think with costs coming down, I may just stay where I was, let the rest fall back to my price or make me look good  I like staying a bit cheaper than some guys, but I don't let folks beat me up on the quality of my hay because I am already cheaper, and I am one of the only farmers around who does not complain about not being able to sell everything by spring.


If you had grain for sale would you sell it cheaper then your neighbors?


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## rjmoses (Apr 4, 2010)

While fuel is down a little, my fertilizer costs are up about 10-12% over last year. I am waiting for fuel to get down to about $2.50 before I buy this years. Two years ago, I filled all my tanks when it was at $3 and fortunately that has lasted me through this last year.

I set my prices basically off of auction prices throughout the year.

I did increase my delivery cost.

Ralph


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## 8350HiTech (Jul 26, 2013)

swmnhay said:


> If you had grain for sale would you sell it cheaper then your neighbors?


It's not grain.

I've been at the same price the last few years and will probably stay there. Small bales of horse hay, in my opinion, are more of a specialty retail item and less of a market influenced commodity. If I was on the commodity hay business, I could envision a potential price drop.


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## discbinedr (Mar 4, 2013)

Hay prices are local, grain prices are global. Apples to oranges.


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## treymo (Dec 29, 2013)

Stay same on custom rates here. Hay prices reflect rainfall here..


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## sixtyninegmc (Jul 20, 2011)

swmnhay said:


> If you had grain for sale would you sell it cheaper then your neighbors?


 wondering if you missed the part about me selling all of mine, while they have to sell for peanuts, or throw away what they have not sold in the spring?


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## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

sixtyninegmc said:


> wondering if you missed the part about me selling all of mine, while they have to sell for peanuts, or throw away what they have not sold in the spring?


69, we(members) like for all of our posters to at least give a general location....that way folks can give you responses that are more climate specific when responding to your questions or needs....you can do so by editing your profile.

Many Thanks, Mike


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## dubltrubl (Jul 19, 2010)

We'll probably stay about the same or maybe even increase a wee bit on small squares. We've always been on the low end given our quality, but we've also seen demand increase substantially for our small squares these last couple of years. Slowly getting out of the round bale market though. Regardless of quality, you just can't make a dollar on those things.


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## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

sixtyninegmc said:


> wondering if you missed the part about me selling all of mine, while they have to sell for peanuts, or throw away what they have not sold in the spring?


Nope didn't miss that.$2 less then what?At $2 less you could be selling for a loss for all I know.Or you could still be in the black.But HERE $2 less would be 1/2 price or less.

And why would you ever throw hay away.It will keep for yrs if stored correctly.


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## Waterway64 (Dec 2, 2011)

There is a lot of hay to carry over in this northern plains region. We haven't had a lot of snow moisture to date and fronts are tending to come in more over the mountains now which doesn't ooffer much moisture for now. The region will depend on seasonal spring rains
My guess that lesser quality hays will stay fairly flat in price this coming year while top quality hay will increase somewhat. Mel


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## endrow (Dec 15, 2011)

Last years carry over come spring and next years actual yield and hay quality will have much more effect on 2015 Hay pricing than a buck a gallon on fuel and $85 less for a ton of fertilizer .


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## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

There will be very little or no carryover in this region of the country.....supplies are very tight. The first cutting of 2014 hay in the Southeastern US was off considerably(about 50% region wide) due to the very cold winter and spring.

Regards, Mike


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## OhioHay (Jun 4, 2008)

Auctions here determine the high and low ranges for prices. We then will look at our quality to see where we will end up. My prediction is if we have a good summer for harvesting dry hay, then prices will drop a little. I have decided not to sell off some dusty 2nd cutting(big squares stored inside) cheap, but to carry it over to next year. This will give me some of my cattle feed and hopefully more horse hay to sell. I made that same decision after a wet 2011 and it paid off nicely in the drought of 2012. Not hoping for a drought, but would definitely take a drier year than 2014 was.


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## FarmerCline (Oct 12, 2011)

Like Mike said supply is extremely tight here. With last winter being so cold there was no hay carried over from the previous year and my first cutting yield was 40% off and for some it was less than that. I have been sold out of hay since December except for some hay I was holding back to sell at my granddad's convenience store......the demand at the store was greater than I expected and I'm almost out of hay to sell there. I have been looking for a month for some good hay to buy that I could resell and there simply isn't any good hay around here. Usually January, February, and March is when most of my hay is sold. I could have easily sold twice the amount of hay I had.

Im going to increase my price this coming year on most varieties of hay on account of the high demand and I feel I might be underpricing some of the more specialty hay types considering the quality.


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## endrow (Dec 15, 2011)

Vol said:


> There will be very little or no carryover in this region of the country.....supplies are very tight. The first cutting of 2014 hay in the Southeastern US was off considerably(about 50% region wide) due to the very cold winter and spring.
> 
> Regards, Mike


in our area there are still massive amounts of hay being sold at auction everyday for a good price. I cannot help but think that maybe late spring hay could get a little tight here as well. We had a good first cutting here . but it turned out very dry in July in August most in this area pretty much lost a cutting. and then 25 miles south of here they had as much hay as ever.


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## 8350HiTech (Jul 26, 2013)

endrow said:


> in our area there are still massive amounts of hay being sold at auction everyday for a good price. I cannot help but think that maybe late spring hay could get a little tight here as well. We had a good first cutting here . but it turned out very dry in July in August most in this area pretty much lost a cutting. and then 25 miles south of here they had as much hay as ever.


It was that way last winter too. The only thing that saved prices was the prolonged colder than usual weather. Unless that happens again this year, I agree, prices on 2014 hay should soften toward spring green up. Which will make it hard to price new hay unless you sit on it awhile.


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## rjmoses (Apr 4, 2010)

Fuel costs is only a small part of haying costs--relatively speaking.

Fertilizer, herbicides, equipment, labor and other incidental supplies, like net wrap, account for a lot larger percentage than diesel.

A diesel price change of $1 might change your haying costs by $500 over the year, assuming you're using 500 gallons, but a fertilizer cost going from $90 to $100/acre over 100 acres increases your cost by $1,000.

This is just an example, and I might just run some numbers for myself to get a more exact analysis. My point is: I'm not going to get real excited over a $1 change in the cost of diesel. Now, if it where $100 change in fertilizer, I could get real excited--one way or the other!

Ralph


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## IAhaymakr (Jun 4, 2008)

I expect firm prices thru first cutting, as the supply of high quality hay is really tight. After that it really depends on the weather. If there is moisture to make it grow, and then more normal weather to aid in harvesting, the price will soften into summer. Dry hay making was the worst it's ever been last season in such a wide area, so even though there isn't a hay shortage there is a shortage of good hay. Kind of a unique situation.


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## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

rjmoses said:


> Fuel costs is only a small part of haying costs--relatively speaking.
> 
> Fertilizer, herbicides, equipment, labor and other incidental supplies, like net wrap, account for a lot larger percentage than diesel.
> 
> ...


I agree with those thoughts Ralph.



Vol said:


> So it looks like the fuel costs associated with producing round and square bales will be noticeably lower(potentially 1/3 lower) this growing season....not a certainty, but very possible. And N,P, and K seem to be down just a tick or two. Everything else seems to be about the same, for the most part, instead of the constant rise that we have seen the last several years.
> 
> The ponder of today is, will you drop 2015 bale pricing any? If so by what percentage? Now think about it a little before answering....you know that (a or some)competitors in your area will lower their prices somewhat to try and get a jump....will that effect you?


I agree that diesel is just one componet...and my original post more or less stated that.

I also proposed a question that was based on the premise that some of YOUR competitors will lower THEIR price due to a significant drop in price of diesel fuel.

So, what will you say to those who ask why you have not dropped your price any since diesel dropped by 1/3 and SO and SO is charging less this year?

I think that "so and so" may be a repeating phrase that is heard most of next summer and fall.

Regards, Mike


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## haybaler101 (Nov 30, 2008)

Spot on Ralph. My diesel has dropped $1.50 a gallon since spring. It takes me 2.5 gal diesel to make a ton of hay in the barn, so the drop in diesel amounts to less than $4/ton. Sorry, Hitech, but hay is grain to me. I price my hay off of two factors. I compare my quality to what the same quality of kansas hay is bringing (the CBOT of alfalfa in my opinion) and add a basis factor which is the difference in freight cost. The second thing I look at is net return per acre. My alfalfa has to return more than a corn crop on the same piece of land or I will grow corn because it is so much easier and a lot less risk. Grass hay depends a little more on the local market because everybody has it. I just try to make a better product in a better package to demand more money. Most of my hay goes to repeat clients and I have never ever threw last years hay away because it didn't sell or had a "fire sale" to get rid of it. I have carried some hay over from time to time, but not much and not often.


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## somedevildawg (Jun 20, 2011)

I'm gonna tell em I wasn't charging a fuel surcharge.......

Shipped some packages off, UPS and FedEx STILL are charging a fuel surcharge....when does that end, several millions of dollars everyday......I bitched about it, fell on deaf ears


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## somedevildawg (Jun 20, 2011)

I had to go up on my squares this year, may go back to last years pricing but that depends on way yonder more factors than some diesel.......however, some 80's pricing on NPK would certainly get my attention


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## JeffMNY (Jan 5, 2014)

Already see ads for cheap hay. I think people are getting concerned about having hay left come spring. I tell people the price and it is up to them if they want it. It will keep in the barn so I am not worried. I will not give it away.

Had a guy get hay from me a couple years ago that told me, well if you give me a good deal I will buy from you next year. I told him I would be charging the same as the previous year. He then tells me well you have to do better than that. I then told him the only F$#@*&^ thing I have to do is die. I have told many people that say I can get it from, SO and SO a lot cheaper. I then tell them that would be their best bet then if they can save some money. It won't hurt my feelings as that is just good business. I don't have to bale hay, but I enjoy it.

On the other hand I have people that come from quite a ways to get hay. I ask them if they couldn't find hay closer to home. I was told yes, but my wife likes your hay. Guess a happy wife is a good thing.

It's much nicer to just try and please a few repeat people as new ones all the time. The ones I have are good to me and I try to be good to them. I tell them any problems let me know and I will replace the hay or refund their money

I did bale some hay this year that wasn't as good as I like so I sold it to one of my guys cheaper. He was happy and I was happy. Kind of what it's all about.


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## Troy Farmer (Jul 31, 2011)

I will probably hold to last years prices. Like my other SE neighbors have said, last year was a tough year for hay in our part of the US. A very late spring then it quit raining, oh yeah, don't forget the army worms! I sold out before Christmas. I usually don't sell out until Feb. And there's no hay around. I just hope my 50 acres of rye pays off with a good yeild. It would put me way ahead with my round bale customers.


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## Tim/South (Dec 12, 2011)

I hope to have hay to sell next year. That was my plan this year, added 100 more acres, made less hay than the year before. Very challenging year for hay in our area. Long winter, dry summer.

I do not know anyone locally with hay for sell. We keep getting calls from people desperate for hay. One horse boarding facility said they were down to their last roll of hay.

I hope to have enough this year for myself until spring. Hope the winter does not drag out.

With the present hay shortage here I doubt anyone will be dropping their price next year. I doubt the customers will argue much.


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## hillside hay (Feb 4, 2013)

My small squares will go up as less people are doing them and demand is strong. Diesel hasn't dropped a bit here. Fertilizer is only down about $5 dollars per ton. Lime is up $12 per ton spread. Twine is up another $3-$5 per bundle on both polyand sisal. I will continue to feed the rounds myself.


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## SVFHAY (Dec 5, 2008)

My price Will be the same.

The diesel price is only significant as to how it will effect transportation costs. The basis factor really shows up in the long haul market, say Nebraska alfalfa to mid Atlantic dairies or western horse packages to palm beach. So if I have a good thing going selling baleage to local dairy and all the sudden premium western alfalfa drops %20 because of freight rates I may have an issue. I don't think this translates as much into the mid and low grade stuff. At the moment freight rates are holding pretty high and truckers have a lot of good choices.

Weather conditions always trumps everything else in the end.


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## hog987 (Apr 5, 2011)

somedevildawg said:


> I'm gonna tell em I wasn't charging a fuel surcharge.......
> 
> Shipped some packages off, UPS and FedEx STILL are charging a fuel surcharge....when does that end, several millions of dollars everyday......I bitched about it, fell on deaf ears


What did you say something.

As for my prices iam going to charge what ever the market will bear. In my area right now there is a shortage of hay. It might change this summer if we get a good year. But on the other hand a lot of hay ground has been worked up.

I sometimes laugh to myself about the guys who only buy the cheapest hay they find. Than they have to feed their cows 40 pounds of hay per day so the cow can survive. When they could pay a bit more for hay and only feed them 25-30 pounds per day and save some money. But they cant see that. I have had this happen to me with two different guys buying the same hay. I told them my cows are feeding free choice and only eating 25 pounds per day. The one guy said no it cant be they have to eat 30. The other guy figured they need 35 pounds. So that is what they put out and guess what the cows didnt eat it all. Both of them said the cows dont like it cause they are waisting too much. Never crossed their minds that maybe they were feeding too much cause that is what they have always done.


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## Waterway64 (Dec 2, 2011)

I am a what the market will bear type two. I make large squares and nearly all leave on semi trailers in which ever direction nets the best price! Mel


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## PaCustomBaler (Nov 29, 2010)

Doubt prices will come down significantly, maybe only .25 to .50 less during the summer months just to help keep hay moving to cover operating expenses. Yes fuel is down, and fertilizer is BARELY down, but what inputs are still the same or more? Equipment costs/loans, labor, maintenance costs, hay storage costs, twine, preservative, insurance, land rent prices, lime, herbicides/insecticides, others that I'm forgetting.


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## hog987 (Apr 5, 2011)

I just came home from being in town. Looked at the prices for dyed fuels. There is $0.40/liter difference right now, there ,between gas and diesel. Why is the diesel so much more? Only going to use my diesel truck to pull my trailers. Any other running around is going to be done with my old gasser.

By the way that price difference works out to $1.52 difference per gallon.


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## Hugh (Sep 23, 2013)

Vol said:


> So it looks like the fuel costs associated with producing round and square bales will be noticeably lower(potentially 1/3 lower) this growing season....not a certainty, but very possible. And N,P, and K seem to be down just a tick or two. Everything else seems to be about the same, for the most part, instead of the constant rise that we have seen the last several years.
> 
> The ponder of today is, will you drop 2015 bale pricing any? If so by what percentage? Now think about it a little before answering....you know that (a or some)competitors in your area will lower their prices somewhat to try and get a jump....will that effect you?
> 
> ...


I wouldn't drop bale prices because of fuel prices, I would price to the market. In other words,* get every dime per bale the market will bear.* This makes good sense because there will always be some years where the market price will be so low that your operation will make little or no money. Buyers will always go to the cheapest price they can get, and they will quickly forget you gave them a break because the price of diesel went down one year. Selling for the max you can get will even things out. This is not immoral, because if you make a big profit, we all know you will plow that money back into better equipment, equipment that will make things more efficient, cost effective and therefore saving money for your customers in the long run. This is capitalism, the best system ever built!


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## stack em up (Mar 7, 2013)

discbinedr said:


> Hay prices are local, grain prices are global. Apples to oranges.


Grain prices are local i.e. the basis at the elevator. One elevator may have a negative basis of $0.15 and the other may have a positive basis of $.15. All supply and demand in THAT AREA, just like hay.

It's all what the market can bear.


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## haybaler101 (Nov 30, 2008)

stack em up said:


> Grain prices are local i.e. the basis at the elevator. One elevator may have a negative basis of $0.15 and the other may have a positive basis of $.15. All supply and demand in THAT AREA, just like hay.
> It's all what the market can bear.


that is how you pay for trucks, for either grain or hay.


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## barnrope (Mar 22, 2010)

I have sold very little high quality hay so far. Everyone so far has been all about buying the cheapest and lesser quality hay. Wish I had more of that. Most of the hay over 125 RFV is still in a snow bank or in the shed.


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## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

barnrope said:


> I have sold very little high quality hay so far. Everyone so far has been all about buying the cheapest and lesser quality hay. Wish I had more of that. Most of the hay over 125 RFV is still in a snow bank or in the shed.


Seems that is the way it started out here until towards the end of December......when all the lower quality hay got gone, then the demand for premium took off. I sold more premium hay in July, August, and September than I did in October, November, and December. Now demand for premium is at a peak.

Regards, Mike


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## NDVA HAYMAN (Nov 24, 2009)

Hay is in tight supply here too. I have heard of 4x5 round bales going for upwards of $100. Unheard of around here. I'm getting 2 or 3 calls per day from people needing hay. I am having some hay trucked in from Pa. to resell but my supplier up there is saying his suppliers are running out of quality. My prices will not go down but I will see where the prices go this year. that's why it's good to have cattle. I can always feed it. By the way Mike, I like the Mamas and the Papas


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## jturbo10 (Feb 28, 2011)

I just dropped my price 15% for premium Bermuda horse hay as I try to clear out my crop nlt end of Feb if I think we are going to have a good hay season coming up. Had 4 good cuttings in 2014 and there is still a lot of hay in the local area. When I lower my price I increase my marketing focus on markets up to 150-175 miles away and it makes it worth while for them to get a price break and high quality hay. Looks like I could be sold out by next week if one of my new customers takes as much as he predicts. I really would not mind having some left over going into the summer in case we have a drought. I have already bought enough diesel and twine to get me through this cutting season...most of the diesel was purchased at $2.59 a gallon. The biggest cost per acre is the lime, fertilizer, and herbicides as I don't skimp on these inputs. Anyone have a good place to get wholesale prices on Pastora? With the drought, recession and poor economy a lot of people got out of the horse business or at least downsized their operations and that is my main customer base. It is really strange in the small square bale industry as most of my best customers come from 50 to 75 miles or more away and buy in significant quantities. Most of them within 10-20 miles buy in smaller quantities. I suspect there are areas where round bales are king and there is not much of the premium hay going into squares, but that is were the money is best. I predict that hay prices in my area will stay stable or decrease slightly mainly predicated on the amount of rain we get during the growing season. Fuel cost reductions will have minimal effect.


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## Hayman1 (Jul 6, 2013)

Seven or so years ago, I did a study over several years of my cost per bale-defined as all my operating costs, with and without depreciation, divided by # of bales made. I was making about 5K squares a year. I covered the equipment costs for support of the horse boarding op and general site maintenance under hay expenses. Fuel fairly consistently ran 11-13% of total costs for my size operation. Was not doing rolls at that time. Like Ralph said, my biggies were depreciation, equipment maintenance/parts, and fertilizer. Since that time, I have been able to revamp all my equipment so that it is fairly new and maintenance/parts is not a huge factor. Depreciation is but I get something out of that at tax time.

So, looking at my coming season, I see no reason to drop prices. All of my hay sales are local, word of mouth, "I saw your hay in someone's barn and want some". I have committed out for this season and have been turning new customers away. Have 4 x 5 net mixed grass quality rbs at 65 at the barn so I am definitely not losing money on them any more. most of my squares are 6 at the barn. Life is good. rick


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