# Are Current Prices Going to be Enough?



## Tim/South (Dec 12, 2011)

The packers have set the tone and fat prices have dropped. This of course has a trickle down effect on the other areas of the market. With the number of cattle in the U.S. at a 62 year low, it seems like the cow/calf business would be a profitable one.
The winter is dragging out. The cattle market seems depressed. Those who raise cattle seem to be depressed. The nice prices predicted for the product have not yet materialized. Auction prices are noticeably less than when I sold my Fall calves last Spring.

Is it worth it to stay in the game long term?
I am seriously considering selling the cows this coming Fall when I sell the Spring calves and re-retire.


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## Nitram (Apr 2, 2011)

You can only sell cows once but the calves every year. That is what dad told me. I thought about selling all of mine last fall. I want to stay diversified started putting up my own hay to keep overhead down. Now I would rather just bale instead... Tim I'm not sure either.


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## hog987 (Apr 5, 2011)

Maybe cause its iam younger but Iam throwing around the idea of buying even more cows. Might as will buy them when they are cheaper.


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## Vol (Jul 5, 2009)

Tim/South said:


> The packers have set the tone and fat prices have dropped. This of course has a trickle down effect on the other areas of the market. With the number of cattle in the U.S. at a 62 year low, it seems like the cow/calf business would be a profitable one.
> The winter is dragging out. The cattle market seems depressed. Those who raise cattle seem to be depressed. The nice prices predicted for the product have not yet materialized. Auction prices are noticeably less than when I sold my Fall calves last Spring.
> 
> Is it worth it to stay in the game long term?
> I am seriously considering selling the cows this coming Fall when I sell the Spring calves and re-retire.


Beef always seems to drop with the first sighting of green grass in the Spring here in the South....they will go right back up as we approach fall. I would not be in a rush to sell at this time.....give it more time and it will bear fruit.

Regards, Mike


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## Tim/South (Dec 12, 2011)

hog987 said:


> Maybe cause its iam younger but Iam throwing around the idea of buying even more cows. Might as will buy them when they are cheaper.


I just added 47 bred cows. I am now over stocked for the pasture I have once grass comes out. That was by design. I put up enough hay with the intention of adding more cows over the winter.
I never thought the packers would get any of the feedlots to buckle but they did. Packers have resorted to ther old tricks, buying large numbers and trading among themselves. That is against the law and had been resolved. The present Administration has decided to look the other way.
I suppose my frustration is with the big money and politics. Both seem to in bed together and intent on shafting the working class that feeds them.

I would rather feed my hay than try and compete with $25 rolls of suspect hay.
At $80 per ton I am feeding $1,100 per week in hay waiting for winter to end and seeing a 750 lb. steer drop from 1.46 to 1.34 in one week.
I have the best spring calf crop I have ever had. That will keep me in the business until Fall. Then the market will dictate whether I stay in or get out.


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## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

Tim/South said:


> I just added 47 bred cows. I am now over stocked for the pasture I have once grass comes out. That was by design. I put up enough hay with the intention of adding more cows over the winter.
> I never thought the packers would get any of the feedlots to buckle but they did. Packers have resorted to ther old tricks, buying large numbers and trading among themselves. That is against the law and had been resolved. The present Administration has decided to look the other way.
> I suppose my frustration is with the big money and politics. Both seem to in bed together and intent on shafting the working class that feeds them.
> 
> ...


Buy low and sell high,not the other way around!









My feedlot is empty,first time in 15 yrs.There is no profit in buying 750 lb steers @ 1.34 either with 7.60 corn.


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## Tim/South (Dec 12, 2011)

I was able to buy my additional momma cows right. Bought them from a farmer. Looked them over, some were $1500 mommas, some were $900 mommas. Made an offer on what they would bring at the sale. He said it was a fair offer and accepted.
I can see them turning a profit even if I sell the momma cows as weigh cows once the calves are weaned. Did not give a lot over weigh price and the calves should more than make up any difference.

I had planned to grow the herd since I retired. I really enjoy the hay part and the cattle give me some diversity and have always been like money in the bank. Cows can make you money while you sleep. I am suddenly leery of the dirty politics by the packers and a govdrnment willing to look the other way.


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## swmnhay (Jun 13, 2008)

"I am suddenly leery of the dirty politics by the packers and a govdrnment willing to look the other way."

The packers own feedlots also which is BS.They don't bid up on cattle until they run out of their own.

Along with only a few packers left to even bid on them.

The one thing with the Cow/calf guy which averages about 30 hd,it's hard for the packer to control them or buy them out like a feedlot.


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## NDVA HAYMAN (Nov 24, 2009)

Patience is the name of the game!


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## Tim/South (Dec 12, 2011)

NDVA HAYMAN said:


> Patience is the name of the game!


I learned a long time ago to develop patience or become one.

I believe by most accounts the packers own 80% of the cattle on feed. Most feedlots align with one packer. Not that that matters as much because the 4 major packers control the market, same as the major oil companies control the fuel prices.
Why should they compete with each other? Both groups collaborate to ensure they make a profit.
If it was feasible they would control cattle like they have chickens and pork, regulate the industry into submission.

The Packers and Stockyard Act of 1921 http://en.wikipedia....tockyards_Act was supposed to curtail the manipulation of prices by the packers and ensure a free market. 1921 was a much simpler time. Dirty money did not rule the day back then.


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