# Grains



## Vol

Well as all of you know, corn fell the maximum of .40 cents yesterday. Hopefully, things will settle today after yesterdays USDA report of higher corn stock. What is hard to understand though is the widespread flooding we had in 2011, especially along the Missouri river, which is an incredible stretch of prime corn land. Makes one wonder about the authenticity of these reports?? Here's a report from Agweb on yesterdays news. http://www.agweb.com/article/higher_grain_yields_stocks_surprise_markets/

Regards, Mike


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## haybaler101

Vol said:


> Well as all of you know, corn fell the maximum of .40 cents yesterday. Hopefully, things will settle today after yesterdays USDA report of higher corn stock. What is hard to understand though is the widespread flooding we had in 2011, especially along the Missouri river, which is an incredible stretch of prime corn land. Makes one wonder about the authenticity of these reports?? Here's a report from Agweb on yesterdays news. Higher Grain Yields, Stocks Surprise Markets
> 
> Regards, Mike


Exactly. All of the surveys had the numbers going the other way. Still shows the government has a lot of ability to manipulate food prices and smudging numbers in the reports. This is one reason I stay diversified in the hay business as well as the grains. No government reports affect hay prices, it is all supply and demand. Also, what the government did say yesterday was not earth-shattering different, just caught the traders going the wrong way. The fundementals have not changed, the world is currently not producing enough grain to meet demand.


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## Vol

haybaler101 said:


> The fundementals have not changed, the world is currently not producing enough grain to meet demand.


Very true Haybaler. This South America weather situation could become a huge player if their drought persists. We shall see.

Regards, Mike


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## swmnhay

I don't even know why they have the reports.Seems like a waste of our tax dollars.There are alot of ptivate forcasters anyway.

I don't think the crop was out there.First Trials which has plots all over had yields down 6% nationaly in their plots.I would put more credibility in that then the USDA report.

Other yrs there was huge piles on ground at ALL the elevators here.Last fall there was hardly any and some bins were not even filled.

Might be a buying oppertunity???


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## rjmoses

Here's a link to an article in the St. Louis Post Dispatch, titled "Farm income could dip in 2012":

Farm income could dip in 2012

Ralph


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## Vol

St.Louis Today says, "But if weather conditions are normal in the coming season, prices could flatten out a little.
"We could have bigger crop supplies if we have a normal year," Westhoff said. "But I still expect a lot of volatility. especially with corn stocks so tight."

Chances of "normal" weather conditions could be somewhat unlikely if the weather pattern this country has experienced the last several years continues(the Ninas) and if the S. America drought develops even further, global demand will be shifting its eye on N. America 2012 production.....as St.Louis Today mentioned.."corn stock is tight."

Regards, Mike


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## rjmoses

Yea, I really expect corn prices to tank--I contracted to pull some ground out of hay and put it into corn. If you want to know what the market is going to do, do the opposite of what I do! LOL.

Ralph


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## Vol

Ahhh, you'll do well. To much world demand right now. You might get to liken' croppin' better than hayin'. Heck of alot less work imo than squarin'.

Regards, Mike


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## panhandle9400

Vol said:


> Well as all of you know, corn fell the maximum of .40 cents yesterday. Hopefully, things will settle today after yesterdays USDA report of higher corn stock. What is hard to understand though is the widespread flooding we had in 2011, especially along the Missouri river, which is an incredible stretch of prime corn land. Makes one wonder about the authenticity of these reports?? Here's a report from Agweb on yesterdays news. http://www.agweb.com/article/higher_grain_yields_stocks_surprise_markets/
> 
> Regards, Mike


why would think you can take anything from the USA government as fact ? The only reason they have those usda reports , are to keep things low as they can . We need to get government out of farming . I love my country but i do not love my government, thugs and thieves is most of them are.


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## MikeRF

Anybody have any thoughts on why a lot of the pundits seem to be talking of way lower grain prices towards the end of 2012? Do they really have any better idea than anyone else when prices seem to so governed by huge variables like the weather and stock market sentiment.
IMO one of the best pieces of advice came recently through a *Vol* link to base marketing decisions on "cost of production plus" rather than trying to be a prophet.


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## NDVA HAYMAN

They probably have a 50% chance of being right. They have to say something in order to keep their jobs and they can always change anything that was said at any time. Mike


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## Vol

NDVA HAYMAN said:


> They probably have a 50% chance of being right. They have to say something in order to keep their jobs and they can always change anything that was said at any time. Mike


Helloooo Mike, Long time, no hear. Hope things have been going well......hows the waterfowl season been going for you and the boys. Good to see your voice.;0)

Regards, Mike


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## steve IN

I feel that those riding the corn train to easy street are about to be derailed. I started in the eighties and had my but handed to me in the late nineties and early double oo's. Seems way too similar to me.Only time will tell but I am hpoing for a downturn to bring expenses back in line .


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## NDVA HAYMAN

Vol said:


> Helloooo Mike, Long time, no hear. Hope things have been going well......hows the waterfowl season been going for you and the boys. Good to see your voice.;0)
> 
> Regards, Mike


Mike, My waterfowl season was great. Hunted in ND for several weeks with my sons and their friends. Had a house full. Ate duck and goose every which way it could be fixed. Good to be back on here. Been on Agtalk some. Another great site like this. We are winding down the season in Maryland this week. Looking forward to the wonderful seafood.


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